Ten Business Predictions for 2009

Recession will run rampant but housing prices will hit bottom—finally. Also: Consumers lose the bling, 3D's resurgence, and more crystal-ball calls

By BW Staff

Two words apply well for the year just ended: Whoa, Nelly! With the financial markets in chaos, the jobs landscape littered with layoffs, and the most audacious outpouring of federal funds since the Great Depression, most of us are ready to look forward to cheerier times in 2009.

Here at BusinessWeek, we've again donned our prognostication helmets and took a gander into the old crystal ball for a few (educated?) guesses at what this new year holds in store. True, we failed to predict the two major events of 2008—the election of Barack Obama and the financial meltdown rippling across the world economy. But we did nail one call: 2008 was the year of $100-per-barrel oil—we just didn't anticipate its stunning slide back to $40.

Recession Reigns

Expect more budget cuts, layoffs, shutdowns, bankruptcies, and mergers. Look for beleaguered bookseller Borders Group (BGP) to slip into Chapter 11, and for Barnes & Noble (BKS) to take over some of those stores—but only a few. Also expect Chrysler to merge into General Motors (GM) at a bargain-basement price as Chrysler's private equity owners at Cerberus Capital race to get that investment off their books. With the rapid collapse of oil prices, and the resulting financial pressures, expect two or more mergers among Big Oil. Our best guess? Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) buys troubled BP (BP), in part to avoid regulatory issues that could come from merging with a U.S. oil company. There will also be tremendous pressure on wireless phone prices, causing financial headaches for companies like AT&T (T). Newspaper companies' profits will continue to shrink; watch for a billionaire such as financier George Soros or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to lead a rescue of The New York Times (NYT), which will become part of a not-for-profit corporation by the end of the year.

Bernanke: Four and No More

President-elect Obama has nowhere to go but down in his approval ratings, so he may lose some popularity points as me makes tough choices in his early months. Also expect to see the last vestiges of the Bush Administration head for the exits. Declaring that his work is done, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce he'll leave the Fed upon the expiration of his four-year term as chairman on Jan. 31, 2010. While mostly not his fault, the recession has hurt his standing with the Obama Administration—and it also has worn him down on a personal level. He'll be succeeded by Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary under the Clinton Administration.

There will also be realignment on the global level. Look for Canada to forge stronger labor and trade ties with Europe in an effort to further unhinge itself from the flailing U.S. economy. Canada also will snub its southern neighbor to strike more energy and resource deals with other countries—especially China, which will continue its ascendance on the world stage in spite of economic setbacks. Also, it's a good bet Vladimir Putin will reassume the Russian presidency.