Stimulus: Now the Real Action Begins

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For one thing, there's that strongly partisan House vote, with none of the GOP support that President Obama has said he wants. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) can't count on a similar party-line vote—he needs at least two Republicans to avoid a filibuster, and the more consensus-driven Senate generally gives compromise an edge over confrontation.

Once the House and Senate merge their bills, moreover, GOP support will remain important to get the final measure through the Senate—and give Obama a bipartisan vote.

What's in the Senate Bill

"The real work is going to get done in the Senate," says Daniel Clifton, a Washington policy analyst at Strategas Research. "Two hundred and forty-four is a very low number—this gives the Senate leverage in negotiations with the House-Senate conference when the two bills need to be reconciled."

The Senate bill already includes a one-year "patch" for the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was originally established to keep wealthy Americans from avoiding income tax altogether but which increasingly hits middle-income taxpayers because it hasn't been indexed for inflation. Analysts say the measure won't do much to stimulate the economy, largely because it simply extends a fix that has been in place for years, but the provision has strong support among Republicans.

Among the business provisions that could be tacked on in the Senate: a temporary reduction in the tax rate levied on companies bringing foreign-subsidiary profits back to the U.S. While it's a big hit with Big Business—supporters say the move encourages companies to reinvest domestically instead of overseas—critics say the tax reduction does little more than reward companies for moving jobs elsewhere.

Democrats Divided

The proposal has historically run into strong opposition from Democrats, including, in the past, Obama. But that resolve may be weakening. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who co-sponsored a similar 2004 provision but had been cool to the idea as Democratic opposition strengthened, has said she will back the measure. Still, fierce opposition among House Democrats could stymie the provision in the final bill.

An existing provision in the Senate bill allowing companies to spread taxes on bond buyback profits over eight years could become significantly more attractive if some of the tax is excluded altogether. Currently, companies pay ordinary income tax on any gains from buying their own bonds back below the issue price. The big winners under the change: hedge funds and private equity and financial firms.

Business groups, among others, continue to lobby furiously to win a piece of the big tax-cuts-and-spending bill. Although they have yet to succeed, the dairy lobby hopes to raise dairy prices by pushing for government payments to cull their cattle—killing perhaps 300,000 animals, or 3.4% of the national herd, an analyst report from Stanford Group notes.

Francis is a writer in BusinessWeek's Washington bureau. Sasseen is Washington bureau chief for BusinessWeek.