Is Hillary Clinton Good for Business?

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Threats to NAFTA and Oil Industry

Business is also worried about limits to trade. In the Cleveland, Ohio debate on Feb. 26 she pledged, when pressed, that she would tell Canada and Mexico the U.S. is pulling out of NAFTA if the countries were not willing to renegotiate the deal within six months to better protect workers and the environment. "She's talking about reworking NAFTA, but most larger companies need trade to expand," says Clifton.

The oil and gas industry are also not happy to be the targets of Clinton's populist rhetoric, which calls for new taxes on their profits. The industry has been lobbying Congress to oppose new taxes on the industry and will continue to fight the battle if Clinton wins the Presidency. "We're not at all opposing renewable energy incentives," says Mark Kibbe, senior tax policy analyst for the American Petroleum Institute, a trade organization for the oil industry. "But if the goal is energy independence, imposing a new tax on oil and gas is a bad idea."

A "Balanced Agenda"

What is there for business to like? In its most recent analysis of Senate voting records, the Chamber of Commerce gave Clinton a 67% favorable rating, compared with just 55% for Obama. (McCain rated 80% favorable.) Many business leaders recall the success of the economy of the late 1990s during Bill Clinton's Presidency, when workers' wages were rising across the board as the economy grew. Like her husband, whose term marked the rise of the "new left," Clinton is championing not radical wealth redistribution but what she calls a "balanced" agenda that will keep the fundamentals of U.S. commerce and free trade intact even as it offers more protections for middle- and lower-income Americans.

Wall Street is fairly comfortable with Clinton. "[She] has been a New York senator for seven years, and New York is the financial capital of the U.S. and the world," says Roger Altman, senior Clinton economic adviser and co-founder of Evercore Partners (EVR), an investment and advisory company in New York. "CEOs and other business leaders have had the chance to work with her [at] very close quarters. If you ask leaders of the financial community if there's anything to be afraid of, 80% or more would say no."

Indeed, some industries would gain considerably if Clinton were elected. Her "Economic Blueprint" calls for the creation of a $50 billion Strategic Energy Fund to support alternative energy industries. "With her record and proposals, there is great visibility in terms of what you get with Hillary Clinton," says Bryan Sherbacow, 39, chief operating officer of Charleston (S.C.)-based Ethanex Energy, an ethanol producer. "With George Bush a lot of people didn't know what they were voting for, and aren't willing to take that chance again." Sherbacow and his wife have maxed out on donations to Clinton, contributing $2,300 each for the primaries.

The question now is who will face McCain in the general election. Whether the nominee is Clinton or Obama, voters can expect the Democratic candidate to cater its economic message to its audience. "Any Democratic candidate for President walks a fine line between policy approaches that will strengthen the middle class and at same time retain good and credible working relationship with business," says Altman. "It's always a complex dynamic."

Herbst is a reporter for BusinessWeek.com in New York.