Fresh Ideas for the Immigration Debate

With Congress set to take up the contentious issue of immigration reform, we asked experts to weigh in with some constructive thoughts

By Peter Elstrom

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In the next week or so, the U.S. is going to begin a ferocious debate over immigration. Senators John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) are expected to introduce legislation into the Senate for what they're calling comprehensive immigration reform, an ambitious effort to address everything from illegal immigration from Mexico, and the estimated 12 million undocumented workers now in the country, to technology companies' request for more visas for programmers and engineers. The House is likely to follow with its own legislative effort. And President George W. Bush has already said he supports immigration reform.

Hopes are high that the reforms will actually become law this year. Similar bills were proposed last year, passing in the Senate before stalling in the House. Today, however, there may be more common ground between Congress and the President, since the Democrats who now control both houses are closer to Bush on the issue than some Republicans. "The prospects are very good," says Robert Hoffman, vice-president for government and public affairs at software giant Oracle (ORCL), which has been pushing for an overhaul of the current regulations.

Still, there's a risk that reform could suffer the same kind of defeat this year as in 2006. While plenty of people are frustrated with the current policies, it's not clear that there is anything close to a consensus on how to change them. The most controversial part of the reform effort is what to do about the 12 million undocumented workers already in the country. The McCain-Kennedy legislation is expected to provide those workers with a way to stay in the country under a temporary worker program, if they pay certain penalties. Republican opponents in the House object to any law that lets undocumented workers benefit from coming into the country illegally.

"A Vote Tomorrow Would Pass"

Peter King, a Republican representative from New York, is part of a group of House Republicans who opposed the McCain-Kennedy bill last year. He plans to fight this year's legislation, too, if the provisions for undocumented workers are similar. "My position has not changed," he says. "Once we start legalizing the people here, to me that's amnesty."

Even King says there's probably support in Congress for an immigration bill along the lines of last year's effort. "If there were a vote tomorrow, it would pass," he says. But he thinks that Democrats want assurances from the White House that enough Republicans would support legislation that it would pass, so Democrats can call it a bipartisan effort. "The White House will have to do this on their own," he says.

In advance of this year's immigration legislation, BusinessWeek talked to experts in academia, business, and beyond about the coming battle. The idea was not to build support for a particular agenda or political stance. Rather, the goal was to press beyond the partisan politics and grandstanding to collect fresh ideas from outside the Beltway on the hotly contested topic. Here are a few of the more intriguing thoughts and concerns on the eve of the debate.

Singular Economic Impact: A Myth

Most people talk about the economic impact of immigration as if there were only one kind, whether it's good or bad. Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Prize-winning economist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says that's a big mistake, one that can lead to misguided public policy.

One important distinction, Samuelson says, is that wealthier Americans tend to benefit from the current wave of immigration while poorer Americans tend to suffer. A farmer in California may benefit from the inexpensive labor of illegal immigrants, while a construction worker in Texas sees fewer jobs and lower pay. A well-off suburban family may get lower-priced house cleaning or lawn care, while an engineering student has fewer companies offering positions.