Media Predictions 2009: What Won't Happen

Sumner Redstone broke? Another titanic success for James Cameron? Yahoo bought at last? No, no, and no—among other prophecies

By Ronald Grover

New Year's predictions: They're right up there with Christmas carolers and fruitcake as sure signs we're about to change the calendar again. Every journalist worth his or her laptop litters the Internet, and Old Media like newspapers and magazines, with what they're sure will happen in the next 12 months.

I'm not playing that game—exactly. Instead, Power Lunch is going to wow you with the Second Annual…10 Things That Won't Happen Next Year. How is that different from making predictions? Strictly speaking, it's not. But any self-respecting online columnist must do something to distinguish himself (or herself) from the growing gaggle of know-it-alls out there.

So without further ado, and in hopes no one is taking this too seriously, here are the Top 10 Things That Won't Happen in 2009. Trust me (or don't):

Katie Couric Won't Get Axed

O.K., I admit it. Last year, I thought she was a goner. So did The Wall Street Journal, which printed that she'd be out after the election. Didn't happen then, won't happen now. Why? Sarah Palin, that's why. Couric proved that—can ya imagine?—she is a first-rate journalist whose questions made the Republican Veep candidate look like a rube. Oh yeah, and Katie's ratings are up, too—even if she still trails Charlie and Brian. Things can change in a hurry, but I'm betting that CBS (CBS) CEO Leslie Moonves, who doesn't like admitting a mistake, appreciates Katie embracing YouTube and all manner of digital delivery of her news shows.

Sumner Redstone Won't Go Broke

That's the hot rumor around Hollywood. The 85-year-old billionaire, or so the story goes, is so heavily mortgaged that he's going to be forced to sell off his theater chain, CBS, and maybe even his baby, Viacom (VIAB), to pay off the $1.6 billion he owes Bank of America (BAC) and others. Yeah, he'll be selling—and maybe even CBS will go bye-bye—but the old guy has got the lenders thinking he'll need time to get some value out of the real estate sitting under those theaters. They'll wait.

Harvey Weinstein Won't Go Broke Either

O.K., so maybe The Weinstein Co., the company he and brother Bob started, does fold. It has overspent, hasn't had more than one or two smallish hits, and has watched as some of its top execs have headed out the door. It could score an Oscar nomination for its film The Reader, a post-Nazi flick starring Ralph Fiennes and Kate Winslet. But as for Harvey, he didn't put much of his own dough into the company. It's investors like Mark Cuban who could get burned.

Steven Spielberg Won't Get His Money

Unthinkable, right? That Steven Spielberg, who bolted from his three-year deal with Paramount to start his own company, is struggling to find bankers to lend him money for a $1.4 billion studio (to be called DreamWorks again) that he's already set up at Universal (GE). The banks don't want to give him the $750 million his business plan calls for. So Spielberg's financial team is scrambling to put together a $350 million package. The lousy financial market has pushed the loan from November to January, and now to sometime in the first quarter. Sure, he'll get money—he's Spielberg, after all—but he won't get the $750 million he initially wanted, at least not for a while. The good news: His Indian backer, Reliance Big Entertainment, isn't likely to take its $550 million equity elsewhere.