Ten Likely Events in 2008

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Finally, Internet TV

For years, gearheads have dreamed of getting all that video from the Internet onto the big 52-inch screen in the den. But it's a pain. Look for that to change in 2008. While Apple TV has been a dud, Steve Jobs & Co. will make an aggressive play this year for the most important screen in the house. Perhaps Apple will even make a gorgeous TV itself, with all the necessary Net capabilities inside. And if Apple can't do it, someone else will.

The Biggest Bribe Penalty Ever

German electronics giant Siemens (SI) will agree to pay more than $1 billion in fines to avoid prosecution by the Securities & Exchange Commission and the U.S. Justice Dept. on charges it paid hundreds of millions in bribes to win foreign contracts. The fine will shatter the previous record fine under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Siemens will also agree to allow compliance monitors to set up shop in its Munich headquarters to ensure the company has cleaned up its act.

Web Crash 2.0

If a recession finally hits, Web 2.0 companies will find there are neither enough ad dollars out there for all of them to survive on, nor enough big corporate buyers such as Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and traditional media companies to buy them all out. What's more, venture capitalists may decide that momentum looks better for clean-tech investments than for Web startups that depend on a cyclical business like advertising. So more will join the "DeadPool," as the Web startup blog TechCrunch calls its list of failed companies.

Crude Oil Will Top $100

When will the world see $100-per-barrel oil? Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at London-based Barclays Capital (BCS), is betting that 2008 will be the year. Horsnell thinks the prediction is a slam dunk, though he doesn't believe $100-per-barrel oil itself has any great significance. Horsnell bases his prediction on broad fundamentals in the industry, which he says are reflected in the behavior of the futures curve for oil prices. Despite six years of rising prices, demand continues to grow—especially in China and the oil-rich Middle East—while new supplies have been disappointing. These are key reasons that futures prices for oil five to seven years out have been moving steadily up in recent years to the $85-per-barrel range at present. Horsnell believes that such prices, which attract relatively little press coverage, are a proxy for long-term, sustainable oil prices. At the same time, the near-term prices, which do get people's attention, have been very volatile, ranging all the way from $50 per barrel to almost $100 per barrel in 2007.

Big Brother Fears Return

For a decade, a Net-happy world has cheerfully shared personal information online, with relatively little mainstream concern over privacy. Now, the issue may come to the fore, as carriers and cable companies deploy click-tracking software and publicity about China's Olympian Internet oversight leaks into the news.