Ten Things That Won't Happen in 2008

Pundits are eager to provide their predictions for the new year. Here's something a little different

by Ronald Grover

'Tis the season to prognosticate. It seems just about every reporter with a computer has rushed to provide his vision of the future with a laundry list of assorted projections for 2008. Rupert will buy this, so-and-so will get bounced from a top job, or that technology will be the hottest thing since the invention of the curling iron. So, I'm gonna go in a slightly different direction for no reason other than, well, this is my column. And I can.

For those who aren't already punch-drunk with prediction lists, here's a list of the Top 10 Things That Won't Happen in 2008:

1. The writers won't win the current strike. Considering that I'm a writer, I'd really love to see the guys with the ideas get their due, not to mention a hefty stake in the new media riches (are ya listening BusinessWeek editors?). But frankly, the Writers Guild of America has handled the current eight-week strike as poorly as one can imagine, especially by throwing in the red herring issue of demanding to represent reality-show writers not already under contract with them. This is a strike that legitimately should be about whether writers can get a chunk of residuals from the streaming of TV shows on the Net and other kinds of digital distribution. But the studio owners have stockpiled movies that take them through 2009 and are already making noises that they'll save money by airing reruns on the tube, shifting shows from cable channels (that they already just happen to own), and likely ending expensive producer deals. The result? When the studios settle with the much less demanding directors' guild —maybe in the next month—the writers will get the crumbs: a small piece of the digital action.

2. DreamWorks isn't going to leave Paramount after all. O.K, so I was among the first to write that Steven Spielberg was unhappy with his deal to make movies for Paramount, and might bolt. And he can, by late in 2008. But I've got the feeling that Spielberg's business partner, the endlessly imaginative David Geffen, may just have another game plan in mind. Sure, he'll take meetings with NBC (he's already had a very public dinner with Jeff Immelt, CEO of NBC parent General Electric (GE)). But pique is really a Geffen ploy to bring Paramount parent Viacom (VIA) and its chairman Sumner Redstone back to the table and maybe to get him to buy the other piece of DreamWorks (DWA), its animation studio, that Redstone didn't buy in 2005.

3. Apple won't reinvent TV viewing. Not that Steve Jobs won't try. But the buzz is that Apple (AAPL) will revamp its weak Apple TV this fall, giving folks a more elegant way to download movies directly from the Internet to TVs. And Jobs is lining up much of Hollywood to give him their first-run movies. So far only Disney (DIS), among the major studios, does that. If you're gonna bet on one guy to figure out how to merge TV and the computer it would be the bearded one. But, Steve, get used to the fact that folks aren't clamoring for unlimited access to movies and TV shows from the Net. That's what they make cable TV for.

4. Juno won't win an Academy Award. Anyone who has seen the small-budget comedy about a teenage pregnancy knows that I'm talking about. It's got warmth, soul, and a heart as large as star Ellen Page.