Labor Shortages: Myth and Reality

With higher pay, there are plenty of U.S. workers to fill jobs, some economists say

by Moira Herbst

This story is the first in a series examining the state of the U.S. labor market.

How tight is the U.S. labor market? At 4.6% of the workforce, the official unemployment rate is certainly low by historical standards. In industries from agriculture to construction, to health care and high tech, employers complain that there aren't enough workers to fill positions (see BusinessWeek.com, 4/9/07, "Where Are All the Workers?").

Many fear it'll get worse in the wake of the Bush Administration's decision to crack down on undocumented workers. Construction companies say offices and highways may not get built. Farmers talk of crops rotting in the fields, as illegal immigrants flee and Americans refuse to take up the plow. "Who will be there to put meat and vegetables on American dinner tables?" says Craig Regelbrugge, co-chairman of the Agriculture Coalition for Immigration Reform and spokesman for the American Nursery & Landscape Assn. "The only unaffected group will be Americans who do not eat." (See BusinessWeek.com, 8/14/07, "Immigration Rules: An Economic Disaster?").

Exaggerated Worries?

David Rosenberg isn't buying it. A North American economist at Merrill Lynch (MER), he is one of a number of economists who say the concerns about too few workers are vastly overblown. Rosenberg recently studied the issue and put out a report entitled Is There a Labor Shortage? If employers are having trouble filling jobs, "perhaps they're not looking hard enough," he says.

The issue may not be the number of workers, but rather the level of pay. Economists like Rosenberg argue that in a market economy, there's really no such thing as a true shortage. If you want more of something, you can pay more and have it. When employers say that there's a worker shortage, what they really mean is they can't get enough workers at the price they want to pay, the argument goes. "While it makes for nice cocktail conversation, the data aren't saying there is an acute labor shortage in this country," Rosenberg says.

Consider the numbers. Even as the unemployment rate has declined in recent years, millions of Americans have left the workforce and stopped looking for jobs. The government's Bureau of Labor Statistics has a dedicated category for "discouraged" workers who believe no positions are available to them. If the percentage of Americans participating in the workforce were the same now as it was in 2000, the number officially counted as unemployed would be 9.1 million, rather than 7.1 million. The unemployment rate would be 5.8%, instead of 4.6%.

What the Price of Labor Says

Rosenberg argues the simplest way to gauge whether there's a worker shortage is to look at the price of labor. According to the basic laws of economics, the tighter the supply of labor, the more it should cost. So if the economy were operating with full or near-full employment, we would be seeing an "explosion in labor compensation," he says.

The price of labor, however, is hardly surging. In fact, key indicators of employee costs show they are tracking or trailing inflation. Average hourly earnings are running at 3.9% year over year, and the employment cost index is at 3.5% year over year.

Most Americans certainly aren't finding their incomes exploding. The wages of 80% of the U.S. workforce—made up of nonsupervisory workers—have been stagnating since the late-1990s boom ended. On Aug. 20, the government released data that showed the average household income increased 4.1% in 2005, to $55,238. But that's still below the average household income in 2000.