Climate Change: Comparing the Candidates

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How far America goes down this path will be one of the major issues at stake in the November election. And it's not what the candidates say that matters, says Grumet, it's how successful they will be in carrying out their ambitious plans. "The question is not who gets it, but who can get it done," he says.

Under McCain's Management

The least likely to take such bold and difficult steps, argue environmentalists, is McCain. Yes, they acknowledge, a Republican President could win more GOP votes in Congress for climate legislation than a Democratic chief executive. But McCain's policies are inadequate, says Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters. "To his credit, McCain understands that global warming is serious, but today his plan is outdated and falls far short of what we need to do," says Karpinski.

In particular, enviros fault McCain for relying on a relatively weak mandatory cap on emissions. While such a cap would raise the price of using fossil fuels, it wouldn't provide a large enough incentive to reduce energy use, many economists say. To get major increases in energy efficiency, they say, the government also needs to mandate higher auto fuel mileage and more use of renewable energy, among other incentives.

Environmentalists also worry that McCain would fill any vacant positions on the Supreme Court with conservative judges who would overturn last year's landmark 5-4 ruling—in Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency—that the EPA has the authority to regulate carbon dioxide under existing laws. "We will have a devil of a time getting serious action on global warming if the Supreme Court reverses its position," says Romm.

Of course, many companies would prefer the next Administration not take dramatic steps regarding this issue, which is why McCain has strong business support. But business is split. A number of utilities, such as Entergy (ETR), Exelon (EXC), and Duke Energy (DUK), would prefer to have mandatory curbs on carbon dioxide emissions, in part simply to obtain regulatory certainty so they know what power plants to build in the coming decades.

Others, such as General Electric (GE), see huge business opportunities in wind power, nuclear plants, and other non-carbon-emitting forms of energy that would only grow with additional government mandates and incentives. At a recent conference, GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt said he's not smart enough to know if global warming will be "a horrible catastrophe.… But I don't have to be that smart," he explained. "I'm making money by preparing."

Obama vs. Clinton

From the campaign promises so far, it's clear the Democratic nominees will try to take more dramatic action than McCain will. Both Obama and Clinton talk about nothing less than a transformation of the economy. But which one is more likely to do it?

It's hard to know, says Karpinski. "What we really need is the power of the bully pulpit to get the job done. If you look at how both Obama and Clinton have made this a priority, that is the kind of leadership we need."

But Grumet believes there is a difference. He tells a story to explain his answer. Three years ago, he was making the rounds on Capitol Hill, trying to drum up support for cutting carbon dioxide emissions from cars. But the message fell mostly on deaf ears. Once lawmakers heard that such emissions reductions wouldn't bring real progress on climate for a decade, since it would take years for a sufficient number of high-mileage cars to hit the road, they tuned Grumet out. But the reception from Obama was different. When told that progress would take 10 years, Grumet recalls: "He said, 'Well, then we have got to start now.'"

With Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), Obama crafted a tough auto fuel economy bill and fought hard for it for 18 months, until it became the basis for landmark legislation that Congress passed late last year. That commitment and doggedness are crucial, says Grumet. "What Senator Obama brings is not just clever ideas. He has a differential ability to change the debate."

Carey is a senior correspondent for BusinessWeek in Washington .