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November congressional elections are still a few months away, but lawmakers are already in campaign mode. Small wonder, given the results of the Aug. 20 Georgia primary, in which Peach State voters denied renomination for two ideologically strident incumbents, Republican Robert L. Barr Jr. and Democrat Cynthia McKinney.
These results served as a late-summer wake-up call for both parties. As it stands now, Republicans hold 223 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 210 seats. One seat is held by an independent (Bernard Sanders of Vermont), and one is vacant.
House Republicans want voters to know that the party has had a great recruiting year in lining up candidates to bolster its majority, thanks to the help of President Bush. And they've benefited from the reapportionment process, which moved House seats from the Northeast and Midwest to more-Republican Sunbelt states. Finally, the GOP has a big edge in cold, hard cash.
PIVOTAL SEATS. Democrats think they have history -- and economic news -- on their side. Historically, the party in control of the White House takes a beating in the midterm elections. That pattern tends to be particularly pronounced when the economy is suffering. Remember Ronald Reagan's 1982 reversal of fortune? Or Bill Clinton's 1994 debacle? What's more, Democrats are hoping to make the GOP's money edge a double-edged sword by linking Republicans to corporate crooks.
Democrats need to win six Republican seats to regain House control for the first time since Newt Gingrich's revolution. They also must defend their majority in the Senate (see BW Online, 8/19/02, "Senate Skirmishes Become a Wider War"). With only about 40 House races in play, Democrats will have to win about two-thirds of the "toss-up" contests that remain. Here are some of races to watch:
Maryland. Connie Morella, the most liberal Republican in Congress, faces the challenge of her career (seven terms so far) in a heavily Democratic district drawn by Democrats in the Maryland legislature. The Democratic front-runner is Mark Shriver, a state lawmaker and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy. Morella won an uncomfortably close election in 2000. But the Dems can't afford to lose this one if they're to have any chance of capturing the House.
Another key Maryland match: the suburban Baltimore open-seat contest featuring a comeback attempt by GOP former Representative Helen Delich Bentley. Republicans desperately want to hold onto this seat, which is being given up by GOP gubernatorial contender Robert Ehrlich.
Ohio. Former Representative James Traficant may be in jail, sans toupe, yet he's still running for reelection. While he has little chance of winning, his candidacy could draw blue-collar votes away from the Democratic nominee, state Senator Tim Ryan, and tip the election to Republican state Representative Ann Womer Benjamin.
At this point, Ryan, who defeated Representative Tom Sawyer of Akron in the primary, holds the lead. A Ryan victory would be a Democratic gain, because Traficant, Democrat in name, voted for Republican Dennis Hastert for House Speaker last year.
Another hot Ohio race: The seat vacated by longtime Dayton Democrat Tony Hall, who was appointed to a U.N. post by President Bush. Republican Mike Turner, a former Dayton mayor, is a strong candidate in a marginally Democratic district.
Mississippi. The state is losing one of its congressional seats due to reapportionment. The result: Democrat Ronnie Shows and Republican Chip Pickering have been forced to run against each other in a conservative district stretching from Jackson to the Gulf Coast. Republicans are particularly motivated because the Senate refused to confirm Pickering's father, Charles, to a federal appeals court post. Shows, an old-fashioned conservative Democrat, may be an endangered species.
Pennsylvania. Republicans who control the Keystone State legislature drew districts designed to minimize Democratic representation in Congress. They succeeded in forcing out at least three incumbents. A fourth is fighting for his life.
Tim Holden, a rising star among Democratic moderates, is facing incumbent Republican George Gekas in a district heavily tilted to the GOP. But Holden is a more agile candidate than Gekas, who hasn't faced a serious contest in memory and isn't considered a major-league player in Congress. A Holden victory would be a huge upset. But some business lobbyists concede that it could happen.
Connecticut. Corporate crime is the big issue in the contest between two incumbents, Republican Nancy Johnson and Democrat Jim Maloney. The reason: Local company Stanley Works became a corporate lightning rod when it moved to shift its headquarters offshore to reduce taxes. The decision has been a polarizing force for the local electorate. Johnson is a tireless worker who has remained in touch with her grass-roots constituents, but anything could happen in this newly drawn district that is evenly divided between the parties.
Utah. The state legislature did everything it could to drive Democratic Representative Jim Matheson out of Congress -- even drawing him a district that strays far out from his home base in Salt Lake City. President Bush overwhelmingly carried Matheson's new district. But the popular congressman -- the son of a revered former governor -- seems to be holding his own. If he continues to hang on, it'll be a sign that things are going well for Dems in 2002.
Georgia. Democrats controlled the redistricting process here and tried to create four new districts for their party. Two new districts are solidly Democratic. And with Barr and McKinney out of the picture, the seats they held still appear to lean Republican and Democratic, respectively, in the fall elections.
Two others are in play, however. In the new 3rd District, former Macon Mayor Jim Marshall is the favorite in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary. But Bibb County Commissioner Calder Clay, a Republican, is mounting a strong campaign. Former Representative Buddy Darden, a victim of the '94 GOP landslide, is hoping to return to Congress from the new 11th District. But Republicans Max Burns and Barbara Dooley hope to pull an upset.
Four new Georgia Democrats would go far to offset redistricting-related Republican gains in Pennsylvania and Michigan. A Clay victory would be devastating to Georgia Democrats.
California. What list of top races would be complete without a mention of Gary Condit. Remember him? The California Democrat is a lame duck now, having lost the June primary to Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza. Republicans, who had been hoping to take on the scandal-plagued conservative incumbent, are now aiming at the more-liberal Cardoza.
The GOP nominee is state Senator Dick Monteith, a well-known and popular conservative. If the battle for the House rages late into the night on Nov. 5, the race for Condit's seat could be crucial.
Dunham is a White House correspondent for BusinessWeek's Washington bureau. Follow his views every Monday in Washington Watch, only on BusinessWeek Online Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
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