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They're the emblems of 20th century work life: Tall, handsome breadwinner, in dark suit and hat, and briefcase in hand, kissing his wife good-bye at the front door as he heads to the office. Row upon row of prim women at desks in a cavernous office, all feverishly writing...something. Smiling stewardess serving smiling exec a tray of airline food (ugh!). Remember these scenes? Kiss them good-bye, say futurists -- the workday world of the 21st century will be a far different place.
And how do professional futurists know? They're the first to admit that they don't, really. The best that experts in particular fields (such as business) can do is research trends, anticipate changes based on that data, and help businesses make the most of them with "imaginative leaps," says Dan Johnson, communications director for the Bethesda (Md.)'s World Future Society, the world's largest organization of futurists.
By peering over the horizon, the futurists -- there are about 200 full-timers in the U.S. alone -- help businesses such as General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. to be "masters of change," says Arnold Brown, chairman of trends analysis firm Weiner, Edrich, Brown Inc. in New York. "Most real futurists would say you can't know what the future is going to be," Johnson says. "But you can have an effect on the future by knowing the possibilities."
So what does the future hold for companies and employees in five years and beyond? To supplement Business Week's special issue on the subject ("The 21st Century Corporation" [subscribers only]), here are a few trends that the professional futurists see in their crystal balls. Behold the future.
My Home/My Office: "Most people can't work very well in isolation. They need interaction," Brown says. Yet many futurists believe that eventually most employees will work from home, or satellite offices near their homes, and show up at the headquarters only occasionally. By 2005, a fifth of the nation's workforce will work from home, says Joe Coates, president of Washington-based future firm Coates & Jarratt Inc.
With the division between home and work increasingly blurry, our workdays will become customized to individual habits of sleeping, eating, and recreation. "Biologically, people differ from each other, and they will work on a combination of what's good for them and their companies," Brown says. "We are moving into a 24/7 world. Our ideas of work-time units are going out." What will matter is "does the work get done right?" Brown says. "Workers will be more in charge of their lives."
Why Leave the House at All? Home sweet home will change radically to accommodate changes in lifestyle and priorities. Most people will have groceries delivered directly to their homes, says Faith Popcorn, future forecaster and the author of a recent book on the future of marketing to women, EVEolution. A service company will stop by once a week to fill up your home's milk and juice tanks and replenish your supply of food essentials, Popcorn says. Need an oil change? Companies will provide mechanic services in your driveway.
A home office will be a standard feature in new houses. New technology will let you change the color of your office walls according to your mood, Popcorn says.
In five to 10 years, you won't be working with today's computer, an old brick of a machine. Instead, you'll have one or several large flat screens hanging on your walls like pictures, performing all the functions of your PC and more. Such computers would be voice-operated and allow for life-size, three-dimensional teleconferencing. Their high-resolution screens would allow businesspeople to "read" other people's expressions in negotiations even though they might be continents apart -- a capacity neither TV nor computers can offer now, says Timothy Mack, managing editor of Futures Research Quarterly.
The way we communicate with others is likely to change in the next 50 years as well, partly because of computers' increased interactive capabilities. We might use a more visual language, says Clam Bezold, president of the Institute for Alternative Futures, a think tank in Alexandria, Va. Symbols and pictures will replace words. "Words are not important, [what's important is] only what you are saying," says James Dator, director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies and past president and secretary-general of the World Futures Studies Federation. "We'll have more organic, biological ways of communication. We'll continue to speak, but the idea is to get ideas out of my head into your head."
Making our home offices more efficient, the computer will store and automatically update our electronic Rolodexes, tracking down our contacts' new addresses, phone numbers, and e-mail addresses as they change, Bezold says. It will also act as our electronic assistant, remembering what our favorite files are and reminding us of our upcoming teleconferences.
Bulky faxes, copiers, and printers will be miniaturized into one small do-it-all unit, says William Halal, futurist and professor of management at George Washington University. The computer-phone-fax-TV is likely to be no larger than our cell phone. The telephone will "shrink to small mouth/ear piece" with a minimum of electromagnetic waves near the brain, Bezold says.
All together, our electronic devices will become so reliable and easy to use that by we are likely to stop using paper by the end of this century, says Mack.
Your Office/My Office: For those unlucky enough to still have to trek to a workplace some days, there's bad news: You might not have your own desk. Where to keep the cookies, apples, and broken pens (reminders of your manual writing abilities)?
"There will be less of a focus on 'this is my space,'" Brown says. It's going to be more of "this is the space I am using now, somebody else will be using it tomorrow." Already, temporary offices are being used in some high-tech companies.
With most information being stored and transmitted electronically, that really shouldn't matter. Our virtual inboxes will be accessed electronically, Bezold says. Instead of stacks of newspapers and magazines to read each morning, computers -- serving as our "butlers" -- will look through all news articles for us via the Web and summarize and present to us the ones of particular interest.
Another positive note: Our office chairs will be "alive," Bezold says. They'll conform to your shape, massage your back. And if you have a back problem, they'll "poke you in ways to help," he says. So maybe showing up at the office will be worth all the trouble and the headache of commuting.
The Commute: Looking back at the year 2000, we'll probably be horrified. Imagine -- driving through traffic totally unassisted!
Some futurists believe people will be driving fuel-cell-powered, computer-and-TV-equipped cars to work on automated highways in as little as five years. Actually, automated highways will do the steering, Halal says. The technology, which boosts efficiency by driving cars 10 feet apart from one another at 60 miles per hour (until the driver signals that he or she has reached the needed exit), is already being tried at General Motors, he says. On the way to work, all the commuter of the future would have to do is read the paper, surf the Web, or watch TV.
Casual Everyday: With so many employees working from home, office clothes are bound to become more casual, futurists agree.
The clothes of the future will be constantly checking an employee's body temperature and that of the environment, making adjustments to create the most comfortable conditions, Dator says. The clothes will be "like a chameleon," changing color depending on your preference and where you are, he says. Popcorn believes the smart clothes might actually look like a "spacesuit."
But even with a more casual dress code at work, we'll still need formalwear after hours. In fact, after all the teleconferencing, "when people do meet face-to-face, it'll be more special, [there will be] more dressing up than now," Dator predicts.
Did Somebody Say Perks? Don't be surprised to see your company sending an outstanding employee of the month who enjoys collecting butterflies on a weeklong expedition to Brazil -- all expenses paid, of course. Corporate rewards will become increasingly personal, Coates says.
We will continue working for money, which is "eternal," Halal says. But in 20 years, we might get paid in international currency, which will be used in parallel to the local money.
One other thing will stay the same, also: The employees of the future will continue to waste lots of time while working, futurists believe. Could there be new versions of the Internet and poker?
So how do the futurists prepare themselves for the future? Like many others, "I haven't done a darn thing," Coates jokes.
Popcorn, who lives with her 26-month-old adopted daughter in the same house where she works, says she plans to have her daughter study Chinese, Spanish, and Yiddish to help her succeed in the changing world. "I'm just trying to make her a universal child," Popcorn says. "And a nice girl." Some things will never change.
By Olga Kharif in Washington Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
Copyright 2000, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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