Posted by: Louis Lavelle on November 26, 2008
Back on Sept. 19, I blogged about “Harvard’s Crystal Ball“—an index created by consultant Ray Soifer that uses the percentage of Harvard MBAs entering “market-sensitive” jobs to determine the future of the stock market.
At the time, Harvard had not yet released its 2008 MBA hiring statistics. But now they have, and the index is once again screaming “sell!!!”
As reported in the New York Times, a record 41% of Harvard MBA grads took market-sensitive jobs at investment banks, hedge funds, private equity, and venture capital, among others, up from 40% in 2007, which was a record at the time.
Soifer's index has been sending a strong sell signal since 2005 and probably will be for a good long time, since Soifer considers a buy signal to be anything less than 10% of Harvard MBAs taking market-sensitive jobs. I'm not sure what to make of 41%. Is it a fluke--the result of many 2008 grads missing the worst of the Wall Street implosion? Or is it a sign that there might be more pain to come?