Posted by: Steve LeVine on June 09
We return to the matter of oil prices, the questions being: Why have they more than doubled over the last four months; and are they headed still higher in the short term?
Oil topped $71 for a short time June 10 after closing June 9 above $70 a barrel for the first time in seven months. But unlike the last explosion in prices — to $147 a barrel 11 months ago — no one seems to be ruling out a role on the part of speculation.
Indeed, as the Wall Street Journal’s Ben Casselman has noted, there appears to be a broad consensus that billions of dollars in speculative money have settled in oil, thus driving up the price. The reason is that traders and investors are buying crude, among other commodities like copper, as protection because they don’t want to hold dollars whose value has been weak and volatile.
There is much said about “fundamentals.” That is, more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil are in storage around the world – including some 130 million barrels just on ships that are trolling global waters until prices go up -- and demand shows no sign of recovering. This thinking goes that the speculators have canceled out these fundamental truths.
But, isn’t it possible that the collapse in oil prices to $32 a barrel was in itself an overshoot, and that oil is at a truer balance in the $60- to $70-a-barrel range?
That seems as rational a view as any I have heard. Yet, at Alaron Energy, Phil Flynn attributes much of the price runup to Ben Bernanke over at the Federal Reserve. Flynn, normally among the clearest communicators among observers of the market, has been resorting to economic gobbledy gook for weeks about an obscure economic practice called quantitative easing.
So that O&G readers are not forced as I was to troll the Internet and confer with colleagues about this term, we are talking simply about the Fed buying federal assets like treasury bonds. By taking the Fed’s money, the sellers of these assets now have oodles of cash burning a hole in their collective pockets, Flynn argues. And what are they doing with it? Among other things, according to Flynn, buying oil.
John Authers at the Financial Times suggests – probably rightly -- that the Fed may keep its current policy in place for some time, most likely through the end of the year. Flynn also sees reason for caution, but suggests that the Fed may move quicker than some expect.
As a narrative device, both Authers and Flynn trot out the punch bowl proverb – the market’s habitual guessing game on when the Fed will halt policies that are leading to huge trading gains; that is, taking away the punch bowl just as the party is getting started. Both go on to cite the market for futures contracts that track Fed interest rate moves; if one puts validity in these futures, the Fed is on course to reverse policy and raise rates by the end of the year.
Flynn says that if the Fed does so – if it stops pouring cash into investors’ hands by buying treasuries (quantitative easing), and instead soaks up cash by raising rates – oil prices will fall again. Authers, however, in the end decides that the punch bowl analogy is not apt. The Fed is not hosting a party; instead, it’s still working on getting the party going, serving up an “energy drink, or even a syringeful of anabolic steroids.” He suggests that the swirling cash that is feeding oil futures will be around for awhile yet.
Of course, the longer-term trend is clear. Oil prices seem likely to spike again sooner or later because oil companies have halted so many exploration and drilling projects that, when the global economy recovers, there is probably going to be an oil shortage. And we all know what happens in oil shortages.
"Oil prices seem likely to spike again sooner or later"
So up 100% in 45 trading days - oil has never doubled over any interval that quickly - is not considered a "spike". You media people are nuts.
A, You should 'Google' this- DID SPECULATION FUEL OIL PRICE SWINGS, and watch that '60 Minutes' segment from earlier this year. Then 'Google' this- GOVERNMENT UNCOVERS OIL PRICE MANIPULATION, and read that article from last year. And don't forget to 'Google' this- THE OBAMA DECEPTION, and watch that too! Have a great day.
Oooh, NO! We'd better watch out for rising gas prices again. I think they're going to try and break the record from last year. I can see the headlines now...Exxon posted $900 billion in profits in the 2nd quarter....while unemployment skyrockets and the President is begging for more bailout money from China. Best Credit Cards For Students
A, There was a PBS report that I watched last year. It had the founder of Federal Express on the show & he said that the USA was consuming (at that time) about 21 MILLION barrels of oil per day. Imagine the amount of money that could be made by MANIPULATING the price of OIL! If the price per barrel could be MANIPULATED by only $10 per barrel, that's $210 MILLION per DAY, correct? Simply do the math and you'll see that manipulating OIL can be a very lucrative business, wouldn't you agree? Make sure to 'Google' this- DID SPECULATION FUEL OIL PRICE SWINGS, and watch that '60 Minutes' segment from earlier this year. And 'Google' this- GOVERNMENT UNCOVERS OIL PRICE MANIPULATION, and read that article from last year too! Have a nice day.
Here we go again, speculators driving the price of oil through the roof, only to line the pockets of the rich & to get oil right where OPEC want's it.
Good look America. We are in for a long hot summer
The speculators need to be spanked by the market again! Apparently losing their shirts in the market isn't enough, they want to lose their underwear too! Time to buy stock in the barrell makers. Ha ha ha ha ha!
Thanks for the comments so far. I just wanted to point out that, when oil had risen back to $45 a barrel, one of the better oil analysts with whom I speak said that reflected a $5- to $10-a-barrel cushion (meaning pumped in by traders). If that analysis holds, we've got considerable air in the price now.
Specifically to the reader identifying himself/herself as 'A' -- I wouldn't agree that we can call a price revival to $70-a-barrel a "spike," regardless of whether that results from a faster-than-ever doubling of prices. Not when less than a year ago prices were at $147 a barrel. Definitions can be fungible, and at this point the measure of a "spike" isn't under $100 a barrel, I don't think.
Last year Goldman Sachs was calling the price quotes, but got spanked in July. I guess they are dead set to prove the are still viable as an information source (har har), but doing it so at the expense of, well, everyone else. Warren made a strange bedfellow, he usually has morals...
May 7, 2008:
"As the lack of supply growth and price-insulated non-OECD demand suggest a future rebound in U.S. gross domestic product growth or a major oil supply disruption could lead to $150-$200 a barrel oil prices," Goldman said.
c/o marketwatch.com
I do believe that speculators are driving the price of oil, and am upset that we are lining their pockets by paying more than we should have to.
But, put in perspective, $150 oil is still cheap. It is almost free energy. One barrel of oil has the equivalent energy of 25,000 hours of human labor. A single gallon of gasoline is about the energy equivalent of two weeks of human labor (over 30,000 calories; think about how long it would take you to move a 7,000 lb. SUV 15 miles).
American's are taking their unemployment checks and chugging gas, Chinese factories continue to manufacture and ship goods to cash bloated and retail starved American consumers. It is highly unlikely that bailout bubble financed speculation is the cause of spiking oil prices. If Goldman says oil will go to $90, oil will go to $90.
I don't understand it... it is just simple mathematics... bad economy = lower oil price = lower demands = no job
As a consumer, so much of this is beyond my scope. Is speculation a factor? Human nature says it is. Does the capacity for instant communication fuel panic? Surely. I can elaborate so many possible variables, looking like a wannabee know-it-all in the process. But, alas, even "experts" can't pinpoint a single factor; therefore, I will cut my expenses by cutting my consumption. Where is my bike?
Oil prices are highly volatile. They have been for a long time, and there is no end in sight until renewable energy gets a substantial foothold. And that is a multi-trillion dollar foothold. Oil is not a conventional market with normal supply/demand curves. Oil is a currency alternative and a speculative market as well as a commodity. In addition it is subject to the high political instability of its major sources. Pricing oil is as tough and risky as finding it. We are probably overpriced for now, but not by much. I recall the Saudis saying that $70-$80 oil is a good target for long term stability in a healthy economy. I agree. But the economy is not healthy yet. And the standard deviation from that target will remain high.
there is a company named origin oil that has produced a technique to secure oil from algae,go to the website originoil.com.
the technolgy exist to break the back of the oil barons,why doesnt the goverment fund this research?
I chatted with Jeff Rubin last night, former chief economist with CIBC World Markets, who reaffirmed my own hyper-bull case for crude in bucketfuls. He was in San Francisco, admiring our civic planning and mass transit system, as part of a tour to promote his new book “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization.” We are in the bottom of the ninth inning of the hydrocarbon age. The next super spike will take us to over $100/barrel within 12 months of the beginning of an economic recovery, and much higher after that. The problem is that we are losing 4 million barrels/day through depletion just when demand is increasing. The only offset will be dirty, foul, huge carbon footprint, $100/barrel Canadian tar sands, which will double, to account for 40% of our imports. The biggest increase in consumption is in OPEC itself, where consumption has ballooned to 13 million barrel/day and oil is being wasted on a prodigious scale, compared to only 7 million b/d in China. Gas there costs only 25 cents/gal, utilities in Saudi Arabia pay only three cents/gallon for bunker fuel, and Dubai is blowing 3,000 b/d equivalent running an indoor ski resort. Oil over $100/barrel will bring globalization to a screeching halt. Economies will go local because it will cost too much to transport goods, as we have in the past. No more California avocados in Toronto. More importantly, no more Chinese steel in the US, or any other heavy exports, which will lead to a resurgence in domestic manufacturing and the jobs that come with it. Last year $90 of the $600 cost of Chinese steel went to shipping costs. $10/gal gasoline will take 50 million of our 240 million cars off the road. Even if we replace them with electric cars, we don’t have the power grid to juice them. Chinese exports will collapse, but so will their Treasury purchases, meaning no more bailouts for us. Oops. Subprime neighborhoods will get plowed back into farmland so we can eat. I think Jeff is dead on about oil prices. But as necessity is the mother of invention, some of his predictions about their impact on international trade are a bit extreme for me.
Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory , a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his latest book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians.