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Obama, Zardari and Karzai

Posted by: Steve LeVine on May 05

President Obama will meet tomorrow with the leaders of what are, in terms of security and by extension global markets, two of the most crucial nations on the planet. Neither of the two men — Pakistan’s Asif Zardari and Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai — are fond of Taliban-like politics, nor militants. But they also are utterly weak figures lacking the political support to stand on their own two feet, and are disrepected by stronger forces around them. So one can be cheered at the administration’s continued support of the two countries’ attempts at democracy. But in the end, a reduction of the threat of a Taliban takeover of the region depends — as it always has — on the Pakistan Army.

As we’ve discussed previously, look for long-term implications in the market should the Taliban take over nuclear-armed Pakistan.

In today’s Washington Post, my friend Ahmed Rashid correctly notes that the Taliban threat is not isolated or overstated, as some claim; at the New American Foundation, for instance, Peter Bergen argues that concerns about this threat have risen to the level of “hyperventilation.” Rashid writes compellingly that Pakistan is “on the brink of chaos,” with militants cultivated by the Army’s InterServices Intelligence directorate present and strong in all four of the country’s provinces.

In a story borrowing from his book, The Inheritance, David Sanger at the New York Times reports that U.S. officials remain worried about the integrity of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Could some of the fissile material or even a bomb get lost? That's the fear.

Simon Cameron-Moore at Reuters has made much of the fact that the specter of one's demise can concentrate the mind; this is in the way of explanation of why Pakistan's Army is suddenly on the march in Buner and Swat. Yet, it is notable that Pakistan allowed the Taliban such a foothold that this mighty army -- believe me, the Pakistan Army is a serious force -- is compeled to fight door to door to dislodge them, as Zahid Hussain is reporting in the Times of London. Reuters' Junaid Khan reported today from the field that hundreds of civilians are fleeing, implying that more trouble is on the way.

I personally don't see how the situation gets turned around in the short or the medium term.

Reader Comments

Joshua Foust

May 5, 2009 04:06 PM

We COULD rephrase your paragraph about Rashid:

"Rashid writes compellingly that *his book thesis is coming to life because of a limited set of circumstances,* with militants cultivated by the Army’s InterServices Intelligence directorate present and strong in all four of the country’s provinces."

Not to be cynical or anything, but his book sales depend on people considering the Taliban a state-ending enterprise. I stand firm in my belief that, while destabilizing, they are not an existential threat to the state/government of Pakistan, nor to its nuclear weapons.

There is a long and difficult battle ahead for Pakistan, but it is not facing the end of the world. The Taliban threatened the Punjab, so the military responded. To me it seems disturbingly correlated.

Which could also mean I'm wrong or oversimplifying.

Marcus

May 7, 2009 10:06 PM

That is OK. America, with tame lapdogs like Britain, Australia and Canada close at heel, will just invade Pakistan. That seems to be the standard American policy response to most things these days. Obama will make it sound like some sort of holy crusade that all the 'we are so much holier than you' evangelicals in America, who seem to be the majority of the population there these days, would eagerly sign up to. Rather more than the Taliban, a real threat would be a new Pakistani military dictatorship replacing the current clownish government and looking for a war, possibly a nuclear war, with India. Americans are overly obsessed with Islamic movements. Wait till Pakistan and India start throwing nuclear warheads around. That will help America focus on the real problem in the region.

walyd66

May 17, 2009 04:13 PM

Hopefully Pakistan is going to tackle one problem at a time. Take care of the Taliban which unfortunately I cannot say "once and for all" because we know what kind of enemy we are facing, they retreat and regroup, take a couple of months or years and will be back again. Pakistan seriously needs to tackle its poverty and fix these economic problems nationwide that are allowing vulnerable individuals to turn towards such sort of violence.
The solution to this extremism problem lies I can say undoubtedly with clean-up of the government with honest and truly patriotic individuals leading the country. It's about time Pakistan was lead by somebody other than those long standing parties that only seem to be interested in gaining more and more power, less the country's prosperity.

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About

Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory , a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his latest book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians.

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