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Blunder: A New Age for Russia

Posted by: Steve LeVine on December 23

Zach Shore, who teaches at the Naval Post-Graduate School in Monterey, usually writes about foreign affairs with a historical bent — on militant Islam in Europe, and on Hitler. Now, though, Shore has taken on a sweeping, big-picture theme — how and why people get trapped into fixed mindsets, and from that make incredibly terrible decisions.

Shore calls his book Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions. Much of this slender, thought-packed volume has to do with war and foreign affairs, including events in Russia (which is why I am blogging on the book). But he also applies his theory of cognition traps to business.

In any case, I have wanted to write a couple of year-end looks at the news, including Russia’s very different place domestically and internationally from just a few months ago.

In August, Putin’s Russia seemed unstoppable, specifically after its five-day war with Georgia punctured the appearance of a new era of U.S. power in the former Soviet Caucasus and Central Asia. Georgia seemed the crowning achievement of a several-year-campaign of projecting Russian power over its borders after a decade of retrenchment following the Soviet collapse. On O and G, we have covered the Gazprom-led rivalry with the West to build new natural gas pipelines into Europe. Russia’s Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines appeared to beat out the West’s proposed Nabucco pipeline without breaking a sweat.

Not any longer. Simply put, Russia is in trouble. Its much-ballyhooed $600 billion cash reserve base dropped by a quarter by Dec. 1, to about $450 billion, and even further since. Much of that has gone to bailing out banks, select oligarchs and propping up the ruble. But with no sign of an end to the global recession, Putin is allowing the ruble’s value to decline rather than pouring limitless reserves into the currency. This Wall Street Journal interview with down-on-his-luck oligarch Oleg Deripaska tells it extremely well. (Note to Barack Obama’s Russia team: South Stream is on hold for at least 18 months or two years; Russia doesn’t have the wherewithal to finance it; Nord Stream is more likely, but again financing will be a problem. That is an opening that was not present before the financial crisis.)

One thing that Deripaska points out in his conversation with The Wall Street Journal is that a big part of the Russian financial miracle was not oil-driven, but debt-driven. The Putin era’s new generation of oligarchs, like Deripaska — men who obtained ownership of large parts of Russia’s industrial sector in the last few years — is lining up for a bailout from some $110 billion in foreign debt coming due next year. According to Bloomberg’s Yuriy Humber and Torrey Clark, that’s twice the debt owed in Brazil, China and India. The oligarchs are seeking some $78 billion in loans.

Social tension is rising, and Putin is tightening up. He has significantly broadened the definition of treason. And the Duma has extended the presidential term to six years from four years; should there be a sign of a dire future threat to Putin’s popularity next year, look for a snap election and Putin’s return to the Kremlin. Short of that, Dmitry Medvedev will remain as president.

In an email exchange, here is how Zach Shore wrapped up Russia’s conundrum in the context of the lessons of Blunder:

Russia’s recent recession is tied up in cognition traps, the rigid mindsets that invariably lead statesmen into blunders. Just one of them is Cure-allism, the dogmatic belief in panaceas. Cure-allism sabotaged Russia’s 1990s transition to a market economy when Western advisers applied the supposed panacea of shock therapy. Cure-allism exacerbated the Asian financial crisis of the late nineties, which engulfed Russia, when IMF experts applied their deregulation dogma to countries needing more regulation, not less. And it has fostered the current global meltdown by insisting on the deregulation of banking and investment schemes.
You might think that after suffering so often from Cure-allism’s fallout, Russian leaders would be especially wary of wedding their economy to any one panacea. Yet Russia has allowed its recent growth to be overly fueled by gas and oil prices, believing that these goods could solve the country’s deeper revenue problems such as a weak banking sector and an inadequate tax system. Rather than solving Russia’s ills, the irrational faith in energy exports has once again revealed the self-destructive folly of Cure-allism.

Reader Comments

FBEye

December 23, 2008 05:09 PM

The PBS News station I watch showed rioting in Eastern Russia last night regarding tarriffs that are being put on cars being imported into Russia! Russians are saying that they don't want to pay more for cars that they'd prefer to buy over the Russian vehicles that they say are poorly built, without ABS brakes & AIRBAGS. It's just another example of how GOVERNMENTS don't WORK ANYMORE! Kinda like the U.S. government, huh?

Titus Pacis

December 23, 2008 05:17 PM

I hope current Russian government and some of its supporters will learn their lesson. I hate the fact that they can threaten anybody during the up times of oil industry. I hope the more they cut their oil production the more the oil price will go down until social tension will lead to the downfall of its current corrupt & mob government.

Pascual Marquez

December 23, 2008 06:19 PM

Russia is just another giant with foots of mud, only the diversified economies will succed in this crisis.America will be stronger after this.

Peter Pan

December 23, 2008 07:23 PM

Let me just get some things straight. It is not Russia that “threatens anybody” and is militarizing Canada and Mexico and has troops in two foreign countries half a globe away. It is actually America who is militarizing former Russia's neighbors, such as Ukraine, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc. By the way, American ships with nuclear capabilities are in the Black Sea, only 150 km away from Russia, delivering new weapons to Georgia, paying off with your pension plans and social security to the bankers for borrowing more money, since the country is bankrupt.
I do not think that Putin is bailing out oligarchs either. He is trying to prevent Russian companies, that were stolen by the oligarchs from the Russian people, to fall into the hands of the world bankers like the Rothschilds. And the diversification process is not working in Russia either simply because the same forces that are destroying this country, doing the same in Russia. These forces are called Central banks or Federal Reserves with private capital controlling a country's money supply.

AK

December 23, 2008 07:51 PM

to Peter Pan
here in America we use miles not kilometers did not they teach you that in KGB school and please stop spamming us with Putin propaganda!

Excellent Article

December 23, 2008 08:17 PM

Excellent quote by Shore. The cure-allism - otherwise known as Friedman or the Chicago Free Market policies - have led to a loss of standards of living and an increase against citizens and loss of democracy in several major countries where it's been tried over the last 30+ years - Chile, Argentina, Poland, Russia, and to an extent China and now the US. If you want to read more - get the book The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein (check for it at your library if you don't have the extra cash to spend).

Curt

December 23, 2008 08:31 PM


These oligarchs will eventually borrow money from the largest Russian national bank, which is controlled by Putin.

In exchange for these loans, the bank will take controlling interest in these large companies.

Within 5 years, after the recession is over, Putin will be the richest man in the world.

drb

December 23, 2008 08:32 PM

Peter Pan - care to tell us a secret how Latvian and Lithuanian armies of about 5000 soldiers threaten Russia?

Business Week's Steve LeVine

December 23, 2008 10:23 PM

Welcome everyone.

Pascual: I do think that Putin especially may have been deluded into thinking that Russia's enormous reserve accounts -- in addition to the retirement of most of the country's foreign debt -- had inoculated it from any possible downturn. Of course, as you, FBEye and Excellent point out, Putin was hardly alone in having fallen into what Shore calls a cognition trap. Surely Putin is taking on board the fundamental frailty of an fossil fuel-centered economy. I'll also be interested to see how, once the deep recession passes, Russia and other major economies act to protect themselves against such vulnerability to another American contagion.

Peter Pan: certainly there is economic rationale behind Putin's financial rescue of the oligarchs, just as there is for the corporate bailouts going on around the world. The fact remains, though, that these figures, such as Deripaska, are not mere corporate titans; they were born as and remain part of Putin's political superstructure. In rescuing them, he is by extension protecting his own flank.

Thanks for the comments. Best Steve

Akhan Almagambetov

December 23, 2008 11:59 PM

@ FBEye: Restricting imports on expensive foreign cars by levying a higher tax on them is the /single/ best thing that Russia CAN do for its flailing/failing economy. The economic gains of this decision are tremendous.. and despite what PBS or some ticked-off Russian car resellers are saying, this move won't hurt the working class.

Having lived in Russia, let me put things in perspective:

Expensive [keyword: e-x-p-e-n-s-i-v-e] foreign cars are generally only purchased by the people that can /afford/ to purchase such vehicles. Under the proposed changes to the customs laws, higher taxes will only be levied on cars with a high cylinder count and high-volume engines above 2.4L, which excludes most foreign cars on Russia's market today.. except those that can be purchased by the wealthy, such as the numerous Bentley, Lamborghini, and Mercedes Baymach vehicles out on the streets of Moscow today. These are cars that cost upward of $700K.. and aren't even owned by the wealthiest business oligarchs in the US /or/ Europe.
Granted, this leaves a large number of people in the resale business pretty ticked-off, as their profit margin is much, much less.. hence, the interviews you see on PBS.
Despite these tensions, however, most cars that fall into the "sedan" category are excluded from higher customs duty.. hence, this move is not hurting the working class people who will continue to buy low-volume vehicles. People who bought super-expensive vehicles prior to the amended customs law will /continue/ to buy them.. which only profits the State.

In contrast, Uzbekistan [a former USSR State] took an different approach altogether.. an approach that /crushed/ the freedom of choice that the Uzbeks have. The government levied a tax of 200% on ALL foreign cars not manufactured in Uzbekistan. People in Uzbekistan can only buy two types of cars without grossly overpaying: a Daewoo Matiz and a Uz-manufactured Lada. On my visit to Tashkent, the capital, I only saw about 6-7 "foreign" cars.. and I stayed there for a week.

To add insult to injury, the government sells the Daewoo Matiz for $12K, while it's being exported to other countries for $8. Not fair? Tough luck, the locals say. That's getting close to the concept of a "command economy" present in the Soviet Union.

Putin isn't as power-hungry or arrogant as you think.. and this is coming from someone that didn't support him at all during his first years in office. Much of what he does is not very apparent from the get-go.. only later do people realize how smart his decisions really were. Do I always support him? Heck no. Do I support him on this decision? Absolutely.

mikhail

December 24, 2008 03:02 AM

Ah, all of you Russia haters! I am a US citizen of Soviet origin and advise you to study Russian - you will all need it to look for jobs there, as was the practice during the Great Depression. Also - suggest to unionize - perhaps your jobs would be more secure, or you like this uncertainty and roller coaster of US-version of capitalism? As far as your knowledge of Russian history, modern or otherwise, it is pathetic - but than again, so is your knowledge of US history. The US chickens are coming to roost - watch out, you may have to beg Russia for a bailout in 2009. No wonder most of you hide behind bogus names…

Mikhail

Kiashu

December 24, 2008 06:15 AM

I think Russia will be fine.

Tom

December 24, 2008 11:31 AM

Russian foreign politics will change when pretty soon it's reserves dry up. It will not have enough money to buy fuel for it's ships to return from South America trip.

rkka

December 26, 2008 04:43 AM

Now if only Mr. Shore, or Mr. Levine for that matter, could sketch out a course of action the Russian government could have taken that would have insulated the Russian Federation from the present Force-9 economic gale sweeping the globe better than the one Mr. Putin chose.

That's right. There isn't one.

I mean, look at what acceptance of Western political/economic models have done for Ukraine and the Baltic States. I mean, at least the Russian government aren't imposing a 15% pay cut across the whole economy, or arresting critics of their economic policy, like that model of Western political and economic governance Latvia is.

Ed

December 26, 2008 05:06 PM

The American establishment fools the American people by keeping well-out-of-sight the four extremes that got us to the financial crisis:
"Real Dow & Real Homes & Personal Saving & Debt Burden" at
http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
The first two are mispricings, and the second two are misbehavings, abetted by mispricings.
Do you think Putin might tell the American people -- maybe at WEF, 1/28?

osgo

December 26, 2008 11:50 PM

Everyone, please keep in mind that when anyone mentions "The Rothschilds" and
"World Bankers" in one paragraph...they can only be screaming, "The Jews! The Jews! It's all the Jews fault!"

I'm astounded that writers from Businessweek wouldn't notice this and ignore, but hey, maybe they're part of the conspiracy as well...

For those of you that don't know, some believe that "The Jews!" control world banking and media, and are plotting to rule the planet under a "New World Order" A.K.A the "Black Helicopter Crowd", "The UN", etc...

I love it when these clowns blame everything on "The Jews!"

-osgo

Redtek-1

December 27, 2008 12:32 PM

Hey Mikhail, we will nuke russia and take your ******* resources before we beg for a loan!!!

Mik

December 27, 2008 07:16 PM

If it matters, I'm in Canada, speak English and Russian.

Both the US and Russia have serious problems. Putin is still resentful of the disrespect he received from the US when he expected co-operation and support. The relationship between the two giants has become adversarial. This antagonism benefits no one.

The US and Russia have to kiss and make up. They have more in common than they care to admit.


M


mark payne

December 29, 2008 10:21 AM

Russia has more to worry about, Turkey will soon take over the Caucasus in its sphere of influence.

Business Week's Steve LeVine

December 29, 2008 11:06 AM

Note to Osgo: right you are about Peter Pan's remark, one that I should have caught. Apologies for that.

For those interested in further reading today on Russia's troubles, take a look at this piece by the NYT's Clifford Levy on depositors' problems at Moscow bank Capital Credit: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/world/europe/29russia.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=clifford%20levy&st=cse

Chris

December 30, 2008 08:22 AM

Hey Redtek-1, did you ever wonder why America has to worry about terrorism, and why so many people worldwide are rejoicing in America's current discomfiture? It's precisely because of your attitude: Arrogant, self-righteous, entitled, and borderline nuts. Nuke em?!? Give your head a shake! Remember, they have them too...

When you need money, do you go get a loan, or do you just rob the bank? Maybe you see nothing wrong with robbery, but honest folks believe ingenuity and hard work are the paths to wealth and greatness. Those are REAL American values. Values that haven't been completely forgotten yet.

I do however agree with you that Mikhail's post is nonsense.

sfba

January 5, 2009 03:36 PM

With regard to Russia-uber-alles postings from Peter Pan and Mikhuil.

Please consider 2 versions:
1. Five generations of soviet brainwashing lead to a rubberstamp approval to whatever tzar-du-jour claims.
2. Something which is impossible under western government transparency: special professional units doing propaganda posting as usual visitors.

So take these postings cum gratis saltis.

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About

Steve LeVine covers foreign affairs for BusinessWeek. He previously was correspondent for Central Asia and the Caucasus for The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for 11 years. His first book, The Oil and the Glory , a history of the former Soviet Union through the lens of oil, was published in October 2007. Putin’s Labyrinth, his latest book, profiles Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians.

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