Russia's Achilles Heel

I agree that Putin's Russia has become a dictatorship and about as power-mad as Bush-Cheney. In fact it's curious that Republicans like McCain say it's not acceptable to invade other countries like Georgia yet fully supported starting this wasteful war in Iraq, that has made the US economy and military weaker.

But Russia has been unfair with foreign business's for over 10 years. The government sits by and lets various mafia "encourage" them to leave at great cost, or Putin's courts do it. If they will steal from a giant like BP who is safe? Corruption is rampant and speaking out can get you killed.

All the more reason for the US and West to have an all out push for energy [and mineral] independence. Obviously conservation and alternative energy are better in the long run; it's fairly simple and without the dangers, and very high costs, of nuclear waste.

There are even more reports of global warming like vast melting of ice in Greenland, which could put much of Florida and the coasts in danger. So oil is not a long term solution even if free; coal and shale also have potential but after billions of reserch are still very dirty.

Simple conservation, like insulating homes or driving less, can largely get us through the next 5-10 years until relatively clean sources, like natural gas or new solar panels developed at MIT, take over. And it will send a clear message to foreign suppliers that we will not be sending them nearly as much money in the future.

Yes, please do freeze yourselves out of the Russian energy market. More for them to export to Asia by ship from Vladivostok. Great for us Asians. Who cares if the Europeans freeze to death over the winter? Meanwhile, may I presume Steve Levine will be sunning himself by a pool in Florida?

Freeze oil? hmm... it will not work. Worldwide oil price will shoot to the sky and no politician want that scenario to happen

Saying US wields influence in "Serbia" is akin to saying Russian have influence in "Georgia". Sure thuggish power achieved through a brutal bombing on civlians to create Kosovo.

Just goes to show you that US and Russia are two faces of the same coin, arrogant, muscular Neanderthals hell bent upon imposing their way.

My big concern is these games just increase the oil power of middle eastern countries resulting in increased terrorism against west and a new distraction.

This is further validated by the fact that the people who pushed Georgians into war tend to be well known Arabist in State Department and Washington. I guess they will be getting larger consulting fees from the Saudis as a trivial issue is aggravated into a real cold war.

Last cancer these guys created was Afghanistan and three decades later it still is not healed. I guess next one will be Caucuses and that will go on rest of our lifetime.

How about we allow the US to achieve 'energy independence' while the Russian Federation can hold onto the so-called "energy weapon". The same goes for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
US involvement in the Middle East and Europe has been one unmitigated disaster after another.
Staggering from Afghanistan to Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, Georgia, et al. the United States has shown that naked imperialism is fraught with vulnerabilities - in effect the US is setting itself up for the role of a Wehrmacht in a global Stalingrad.
The Russophobic advocates of such a scenario can be found in the cabinets of would-be presidents McCain as well as Barack Obama.
However, the confidence of the USA is dependent on one factor unmentioned in the above article - the role of the PRC, China, who American pundits openly speak of splitting from their Shanghai Cooperation Organization comrades in Russia.
In short, the US thinks that unilateral sanctions and geopolitical clowns such as W. Bush, John McCain, the Polish "Potato Twins", and Napoleon Buonashvilli of Georgia will suffice in a world sick to death of US "double standards" - and this is a grave mistake, one that spells out rather succinctly the historic crisis which US imperialism finds itself in.

But why get involved in a fight with Russia in the first place? Trying to put NATO into Georgia seems like insanity. It doesn't help that the US is pushing for a first strike doctrine and invading countries that haven't done anything.

Also, Georgia's territorial integrity isn't a real argument now that the West has pushed so hard to break up Yugoslavia and even Serbia.

Maybe it's time to rethink the whole purpose of NATO and try to come up with some alternatives for letting the past victims of the Soviet Union feel more secure. Creating and funding color revolutions on the border of Russia simply can't come to a good end.

Problem is, Russia's Achilles power is also a problem for everyone else. Europe and the US also want cheap energy source and oil is the answer (at least for now). So, it'll just be an empty threat. Both sides will be worse off.

Leaders should put away the cold war era attitude and grasp the fact that we're all just human beings that just want to live.

Dear Steve,

How do you imagine that Serbia which stands to receive 300 million annually from South Stream will jeopardize that deal with Russia to protect sovereignty of Georgia???
To back the USA who gave Kosovo independence and go against Russia who was its only ally???

This is a joke, right?

The premise of your argument is in deed a la Sun Tzu and that is always commendable.
However, whilst you might characterise Russian muscle flexing as harking back to an Old Soviet era, it has certainly sent a compelling message. That message being peel away from the Bear but the Bear can exact a very high price. Georgia reminds me of a little gazelle being asphyiated by a Lion. The balance of power belongs to one side.

In the final analysis, Europe will take its gas supplies over standing 'shoulder to shoulder' with the likes of Georgia, I am afraid.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

Russia's energy export policy is making renewable energy/conservation in Europe into an ever increasing industry. This can create a situation where Russia is more dependent on European exports than Europe. That puts the political influence in the other direction. If Europe is the one that can survive closing the Russian pipelines then its Russia that has the dependence and Europe that has the influence.

The powerful will always serve their own purposes no matter which nation they come from. The common folk see it as nation against nation, but it is a fight amongst the powerful within each nation. They use us to protect their interest and indirectly our interest with our lives. But there are better ways to do this without the meaning the powerful have placed on these things based upon their own meaning of priorities.

Why everybody see Russia as an Evil. What bad has Russia made with Georgia ? Russia spent 5 days to protect people in South Ossetia from ethnic cleansing. World should be happy that Russia is doing this.

When it comes to oil, Russia is a very reliable source. It does not play games, always deliver everything what was promised by the price that customers agreed. It is only transit countries like Ukraine (backed by US) who still oil and gas from pipeline and create a mess.

Western medias portray Russia as a monster, when Russia is a very good guy and monster is USA that uses its medias to confuse people and supply them with a wrong information.

I do not want to offend anything but it is just my humble point of view.

Russia,China and Cuba still subscribe to the Internationale.G-8 etc sanctions are OK. Stinger missles for Georgia might have proved more effective.

Russian troops are a lot closer to those pipelines than we are. Game over.

Every entity has at least one Achilles heel. Forget about trying to exploit it. Rather, reduce the testosterone levels among the various state leaders and get them to meet together and discuss exhaustively each other's vested interests, fears, suspicions and misgivings while remembering that it is foolhardy and unproductive to make the present and future generations of peoples responsible for the absurdities and horrors of the past.

Maybe LeVine is on the payroll of the Chinese ? He forgets that Russia could easily turn around and sell all its hydrocarbons to China and still not satisfy but a small fraction of what the Chinese economy needs. Given the anti-Russian rhetoric that comes from countries like the Ukraine and Poland, I am wondering how the Russian leadership explains to its populace why it does not freeze these (and other nearby) countries out and sell everything to China instead. I am also declaring that we in the rest of Europe will also happily freeze to death in order to support LeVine's humble initiative.

Threatening Russia's new gas lines would pit the US against Russia AND Europe. Better to think longer-term, put a few DDG-1000s-worth of defense budget into alternative fuels and shoring up access within our hemisphere.

Russia will allow missiles in Georgia or Poland when the US welcomes a Russian-funded "counter-terrorist/rogue states" missile shield in Cuba. That is, never?

Wow! Steve, I do not know who is paying you to write articles but before you do so, you need to do your homework.

It really shows how little you know about Russia and the history of Balkans. You mention Serbia as the U.S. ally? Are you kidding me? America sold Serbia out thanks to Ms. Albright. If you recall, America bombed Serbia and supported Kosovo independence. Russia and Greece were Serbia's allies. How do you think Serbia is going to support America? You must be doing some serious drugs if you think Serbia is an ally. Please do not waste people's time writing stuff like that.

Why dont the west bite the bullet and withdraw Kosovos recognition, by doing this Russia has no precedent to recognise the Georgian enclaves. Oil is Russias strength and Europes weakness. The sooner the west realise this and abide by international law, Russia's hand becomes tied in what it can do in its near abroad.

Innane geopolitical advice as usual. In 20-25 years, Russia's energy exports will have ceased; then what? It's utter stupidity to throw resources into militarism instead of preparing for the coming energy paradigm change. The best tactic is to negotiate the lowest delivery price for the longest possible term. By 2030-2040 (perhaps sooner given some models), the countries that build new electrical energy generation infrastructure that relies only on the planet and its atar will be best placed to deal with the future beyond. And there's the issue of dealing with Climate Change, which means burning hydrocarbons must cease in any case. US bullying serves nobody on the planet and is actually inimical to the genuine interests of its own citizens.

Probably the most stupid and ill-informed article I have ever read on 'Business Week'
Congratulations.

One main point is that Russia can satisfy European demand using the current pipeline system; it is planning Nord Stream and South Stream as a means to increase supply if required, but mainly to bypass nettlesome countries like Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland, and to marginalize the rival U.S.-backed proposed pipeline, Nabucco. In short, Europe will not freeze were its pipeline plans to be put on hold.

As for who might be pressed into action, some of you are forgetful of post-1999 history. Since Milosevic lost the presidency in 2000 and was arrested and sent to The Hague for trial the following year, Serbia has been working feverishly to be admitted into the EU. That is, Serbia is a Western ally; it is a European ally. It is Europe that would exert influence on Serbia. Nick raises a strong point -- Putin and Medvedev have shrewdly bought off Serbia (and Bulgaria, and Hungary, and Austria) with oil/pipeline deals. That is the main hurdle that must be surmounted.

Sam makes utter sense -- proximity makes for the strongest game of all when it comes to the Caucasus and Central Asia. That's why the best pressure points are not located there, but in Europe.

Thanks for the comments.

Condemning statements made by countries and international organizations about Russia are called „applying pressure“ while a more accurate description of the activity would be „pretending to apply pressure“. International disapproval may hurt the government of a democratic country with a free press but it has become clear over the years that it does not do much to sway Russia and may even strengthen the internal support for the Russian government. To change Russia’s course real and measurable sanctions are needed such as freezing its assets abroad or denying visas to its top officials.

The method Russia seems to be using in gaining its objective of restoring the Soviet Union is to separate a piece from another country and then move in its „piecekeepers“ to keep that piece for itself.
In conclusion, the international community should make plans for reacting to Russia’s next attack on its neighbour. The present reaction is inadequate since Russian forces are staying in Georgia. The next attack will come since the invasion of Georgia was premeditated and part of a bigger plan (Robert Kagan’s Aug. 11 article in The Washington Post). There are also plenty of „frozen conflict“ opportunities that Russia can warm up – Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, Eastern Ukraine that is mainly Russian-speaking, Transdniestria in Moldova, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania (access rights for example), the mainly Russian-speaking Ida-Virumaa region of Estonia.

The fact of the matter is that Humpty Dumpty is trying to put all those egg shells back together again and he draws a crowd of casual observers.

No offence... but, this is the silliest idea I've ever heard. Russia has Europe by the short and curlies as far as oil and especially gas goes. This is why Germany and France baulked at admitting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO in the first place, even though they eventually agreed (after the insistence of the U.S.)that they'd eventually be admitted.

That America wants to surround Russia with missile sites in former Soviet nations is obvious, regardless of ridiculous assertions of "missile shields against rogue states". That Russia has put up with it until now shows an amount of restraint I never would have thought possible. However, since the Georgian president has shot himself, and his country, in the foot by initiating the first aggression, the West's total impotence is now obvious to everyone.

Should Russia wish to reciprocate tit-for-tat punishment they could quickly cripple Europe and America by just reducing the flow of oil onto world markets. If they wanted to seriously effect Europe for taking American guidance they only need wait until winter when Europe's need for gas supplies is most critical and shut them down. If they wanted to destroy the U.S. dollar all they need to do is merely suggest that they're going to reduce their surplus of U.S. dollars and treasuries.

The way I see it Russia is holding all the trump cards and anything short of a full nuclear confrontation can only be won by Russia.

The point isn't really whether Russia has pressure itself to bear on Europe, but whether Europe is united, or can be united. And there are grave doubts that it can. Therefore, Russia dominates.

hahahaha what a nonsense article. so many obvious flaws it almost looks like a primary grade homework.

BusinessWeek should stick to business. no need to provide venue for politics just to increase readership. i go to other journals to read politics. i go to BW to read business or if i want to laugh at its funny political article. hehe.

History repeats itself. Nobody ahould be surprised and if they are, they are very uneducated. The US did not learn from the Russians bleeding to death from a long and endless conflict in Afghanistan, and equally the Russians did not learn from their own mistakes. Both sides are equally wrong and while the big boys from Washington and the Kremlin play their newly started game of "Risk" - the little people have to standby and watch and worry.

well. Russia is doing in Georgia what US was doing in Kosovo. The larger threat is that emboldened Russia will try to do the trick in Ukraine, Moldavia, Baltics, etc. while sucking up to Chinese. If US is so decisively against Russians - sell them to Chinese. I am sure that Chinese with their ever increasing population see depopulated Russian areas east of Ural mountains as former Chinese territories that it needs to reacquire. Support Chinese and to hell with Tibet, East Turkestan, etc. Play East Siberian card.

This truly is a stupid article on an epic scale. Levine, thanks for lowering the standard for the level of ignorance in global affairs for us here in the US. Russia's Achilles heel? they hold too many cards so they might fall over from the weight of them. Insightful.

It's ridiculous for the US to be trying to antagonize the Russians, and then using their predictable reaction as an argument for further war. Ever since their ill-conceived invasion of Iraq, the Neocons have been isolated and on the defensive, particularly shunned by Europeans unhappy with an avoidable conflict. Stoking up a war on Europe's borders seems to be a quick way for the Neocons to get Europeans to come onside. Ever heard of the phrase "co-dependent relationship"?

Get Germany to stall Nord Stream....All we have to do is ask G Schroeder (runs Nord Stream) how he feels about that....Writing on wall, Germany SUPPORTS Russian behavior.....

When nations such as Brazil, the U.S. and others bring more oil to market, taking down oil prices, Russia's situation will deteriorate dramatically. It WILL happen within the next 3-4 years. With decrepid infrastructure and poor business and legal institutions, their bubble will burst. Back to begging on the street corner, Vladimir!

Just who is Mr Levine really worried about? It ain't the United States.

I do not understand how a neoconservative still gets airtime, every single policy prescription they have have proven to be ill thought out and wrong. Boycotting Russian sales -- to protect your access to the pipeline system the Russians are seeking to assert control over, do you think anyone cares about Ossetia, Georgia or any other regional self determination --is among the most pernicious and selfserving form of warmongering behaviour yet to be suggested. It drives Russia and Iran right into the same corner. But then again, stupid me. The object of all neocon policy is to set up war. 24/7/365 around the world.

"President McCain let the bombing begin".

Guys, you have no chance. I laughed reading the article and comments.
North stream: If you would like to cut German's eggs, try to do it. Russia will laugh with me. Stingers and Georgia. What will you say about 2 Mt in NYC, LA, DC? Are you ready to loose your Burger King? - It is really funny. If you are not ready to real fight, shut up, please. Nuces can hear you. Would you like to get them on your backyard?

The best way for US is to follow Monroe doctrine, enjoy life on the American continent and do not try to manage flees in Vietnam, Georgia, Europe and anywhere else.

I like the idea. I am sure the European will obey the U.S. wish for them to stab at an Achilles Heel. They would be stabbing at their OWN Achilles Heel, of cause. But what do I care, I am an American. I can benefit as the Europeans will be forced to cut down as energy consumption dramatically, I can expect to enjoy driving my Hummer again.

I'm amused by the comments. Very few of the writers address the thesis of the article - they are of the genre "I disagree with your point of view and therefore you're stupid, unAmerican, and probably a commie stooge" Also, too bad that so few know how to type.