Posted by: Steve LeVine on July 03
The philosophical underpinning of President Obama's arms-control agenda in Russia next week is that -- by allowing Moscow to preen on-stage, reviving its former role as a superpower state, ostensibly regulating peace in the world -- Russia will be more amenable to persuasion on other topics.
But does this reasoning hold? Will Moscow see things Washington's way on the Caspian, on Georgia, and on the balance of petro-power in Europe?
More important at the moment, could Moscow decouple from Iran, with which it has maintained an alliance of poking-fingers-in-the-U.S.-chest? Now that the chances for a game-changing U.S. opening with Iran have been all-but eliminated by the after-election crackdown in Tehran, is there anything to be done before Israel, for instance, decides it can no longer wait for Iran to become a nuclear state?
I've surveyed some old Russia and foreign policy hands from the George W. Bush and Clinton administrations, and the answer comes back that, at least on Iran, Moscow either can't or won't be able to help restrain Tehran. As for petro-power and the Caspian -- Moscow is capitalizing on the global financial crisis to re-assert power in its struggling neighborhood, and will push back on any attempt to deny it regional domination.
Continue reading "On Obama's Plate in Moscow: Iran and Breakfast With Putin"
Posted by: Steve LeVine on July 01
A narrative familiar to all oilmen with long exposure to Russia is under way: With cash reserves running down and insufficient economic relief in sight, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, his growl turned into a purr, is welcoming back Western oil companies to work Russia's natural gas fields.
So how should Shell and Total -- both of them the recipients of Putin's renewed niceness -- respond? Are Putin's past revocations of deals, expulsions from fields at knock-down rates, and ho-hum attitude toward shakedowns reason not to do business with him now that Russia is trouble?
Specifically, Shell is being offered an unspecified role in the highly complex, offshore Sakhalin 3 and Sakhalin 4 natural gas projects (BP walked away from the latter last month after drilling dry holes). Total signed a smallish, $900 million deal to work with Russia's independent Novatek on the Termokarstovoye natural gas field, and Putin says it's "entirely possible" that the French company will be permitted to work on future stages of the supergiant Shtokman natural gas field.
Continue reading "Putin's Natural Gas Offers to Shell, Total"
Posted by: Steve LeVine on June 21
As we look for a picture of how long it will take for a resolution of Iran's brittle- and tension-filled politics, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's legitimacy is just one victim of the week-long events in Tehran.
The second victim is the already long-shot chance of a U.S.-Iran rapprochement.
Short of a remotely possible, far-reaching concession by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there is now no near- or medium-term chance of a new day in Middle East and European politics and economics -- both of which seemed possible before the current bloody crackdown.
At O&G, it had specifically seemed possible to foresee a change in the balance of petro-power in Europe. If Russian dominance of Europe's energy picture is to be tempered, there needs to be a fresh, new supply of natural gas from somewhere. Iran seemed to be the best candidate. But for the last couple of years, Ahmadinejad's voluble belligerence has ruled out a lowering of the temperature with the U.S.: Diplomatic traction requires domestic political consent in both countries, and that's not possible when one or both sides is provoking jingoism.
Continue reading "The Second Victim in Iran: Fresh Petro-Politics in Europe"
Posted by: Steve LeVine on June 17
The latest from the federal courtroom hosting the foreign bribery case of uber-middleman James Giffen is that only his lawyers can examine files disgorged from the Central Intelligence Agency. Unless the CIA grants specific permission for a requested document, Giffen himself cannot look at the classified material.
That's from a decision issued by federal Judge William Pauley in New York. The ruling was handed down June 5th, but I haven't seen it published anywhere. At the time of Giffen's 2003 arrest, it was the biggest U.S. foreign bribery case since the law was enacted in 1977.
Continue reading "Former Kazakhstan Consultant Cannot Examine CIA Documents"
Posted by: Steve LeVine on June 17
The White House’s release of a fresh global warming report seemed likely to generate a volcano of political rancor. The topic is among the most partisan in Washington, and the report was issued amid a highly emotional House debate over a bill to control U.S. carbon emissions, known as “cap and trade.”
And it did. Terry Frank, for instance, calls it a “global warming scam created for the sheer purpose of generating profit and cash for the political class and their allies.”
Yet, compared with past bouts of debate, the “hoax” side of blog debate has appeared surprisingly subdued since yesterday’s release of the 196-page report, which was posted online. Over at Bloomberg, Eric Pooley seemed to see a defining moment: “So you still think global warming is bunk? An eco-Nazi plot to jack up your taxes and control the energy supply? Get over it, my friend. Move on.”
Pooley’s point? Congress, backed by the Obama administration, appears set on cap and trade, a system in which emitters would effectively pay for the right to pollute greenhouse gases. A House bill could be up for a vote as early as next week. In the Senate, the bill may be taken up in August, faster than some predicted.
It still seems unlikely that legislation will be advanced enough to be signed by President Barack Obama before December, when nations meet in Copenhagen to try to hammer out a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol on global warming.
Over at Business Week’s Green Business blog, my colleague Mark Scott writes that not just a U.S. trading system, but a global carbon market, is closer than many think.
Do you think that’s right? Is cap and trade already effectively with us?
