The Chance of a Recession (Part 2)

Posted by: Tim Catts on May 14

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on today’s front page that addresses a shift in economists’ thinking about whether the U.S. economy will slip into recession. A “growing number of economists” have said a recession is less likely, though “warning signs” remain. There’s a prediction from Wachovia economists that the economy will grow by 0.6 percent again in the second quarter of this year, then accelerate to a 1.2 percent in over the last two quarters of 2008 before remaining “very weak” through next year.

In other words, we’ll get three more months of the conditions we’ve seen since last fall, then things will improve a bit but still stay considerably more sluggish than we’re used to for the rest of the year. And this is good news? Well, it’s better than a shrinking economy.

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As the U. S. economy slows, the story is often told through broad statistics. In this blog, BusinessWeek reporters travel the country to uncover the stories of how individuals are coping with the downturn.

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