Economists' survey: Recession is here (or will be soon)

Posted by: Tim Catts on May 19

Some 54% of the economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics believe we’re either in a recession now or headed into one at some point this year, the group announced today. The economists surveyed also expect the unemployment rate to rise from an average of 4.6% last year to 5.3% this year and 5.6% next year. On the bright side, the slumping housing market and vice-tight credit conditions will likely reach bottom and begin to improve in the second half of 2008, the economists surveyed said.

Some interesting thoughts from West Virginia University economist Justin Ross on the survey are here, for those inclined to dig a little deeper. Note that he cites the shorthand “two consecutive quarters of negative growth” definition of a recession, which is not the “official” standard, or at least the one that the National Bureau of Economic Research uses.