How Reliable Are Lobbyist Registration Data?

Posted by: Theo Francis on July 30

Starting last year, lobbyists in Washington had to meet tough new rules, including more frequent reporting to the federal government. For months now, they’ve faced tough rhetoric, with President Obama promising to keep lobbyists (mostly) out of his administration and referring as recently as last week to “the special interests and the lobbyists … all scurrying around” on health reform.

But for the most part, lobbyists and their lawyers say the rules and the stigma attached to their chosen profession are proving to be more a hassle than a real impediment.

Moreover, it’s a hassle that may be easily avoided.

If you don't contact lawmakers, Hill staffers and key Administration officials for clients, you can do all the "lobbying-related activity" you want without registering. Some high-profile lobbyists are becoming "strategic advisers" who advise lobbyists without having to register themselves, as we note in this week's article on how lobbyists are adjusting their tactics. Alternatively, chat up all the government officials you want, but spend less than 20% of your time on lobbying-related activity for any given client and you're off the hook as well.

Oh, and "grassroots" efforts -- where interest groups drum up vocal support from customers or the public in a practice often derided as Astroturf lobbying -- doesn't count as lobbying at all, no matter who does it.

Actual scofflaws now face the risk of jail time (up to 5 years -- see section 211), which lobbyists say is plenty to keep anyone from truly breaking the rules. But several lawyers for lobbyists say those who can avoid registering are largely doing so. "They’re de-registering when they don’t have to register," says a lobbying-law specialist at one big Washington law firm. And a lawyer who lobbies told us recently: “Who’s to say how I spent 20% of my time?

In fact, there may be no way to know for sure. The Government Accountability Office audits a random sample of lobbyist filings, but federal law doesn't require lobbyists to actually document the lobbying they say they're doing. In April, the GAO sampled 2008 lobbyist filings and discovered that two thirds included details the filers couldn’t corroborate; for roughly a quarter of the filings, lobbyists couldn’t even establish which branch of government they had contacted for clients -- they said they didn’t track phone calls or informal meetings, or couldn’t retrieve emails.

So it's impossible to say how much -- if at all -- the recent decline in the number of lobbyists reflects a decline in the number of people trying to influence policy and legislation.

Only registered lobbyists, of course, show up in federal records, and while their numbers have fallen lately -- by about 7%, to 12,467, compared to the first half of 2008, according to the Center for Responsive Politics -- some of that is surely the recession at work. K Street’s head-count fell almost twice as much (about 12%) in the milder 2001 recession.

Some in the industry argue that part of the decline is due to the complexity of the issues facing business today, which has squeezed out glad-handers with connections but no real technical or procedural knowledge that would companies pursue their interests.

That could well be. But without more rigorous oversight, we may never know for sure.