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Well, I think it has actually become a little bit less likely that the core countries, especially Germany, would want Greece to leave. And the reason is that it’s now become very obvious for the Germans how high Germany’s exposure not only to Greece, but to the peripheral countries is. Where it—it is all crystallized in the huge claims that the Bundesbank, the German central bank, has accumulated against the euro system, against the other central banks. These claims are now in excess of EUR 500 billion.
Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley, on Surveillance Midday, 22 February 2012.
I have no idea if the Greece-German spread will widen or narrow. What I do know, is very smart people like Dr. Fels are paying less attention to the markets (spreads, CDS and such) and are spending more time on Political economics, with a capital P.
The euphoria of recent days will evaporate. In its place will be the cold reality of fiscal adjustment and, the protest of an austere Public.
It is the spring of 2012. Winter recedes. It is time that choices, decisions and the certitude of the elite all, like a snow flake, be crystallized. Discuss.