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BusinessWeek: January 10, 2000 |
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Washington Outlook
In California, Bradley and McCain Could Slam into Reality
While folksy retail politicking may work in tiny states like New Hampshire, it takes oodles of money to score in California, a state with 13 major media markets. Candidates must spend at least $1.5 million a week for four weeks straight to make an impression. Says Democratic consultant Richard Ross: "Our town-hall meeting happens in front of a TV set." On the GOP side, front-runner George W. Bush and publisher Steve Forbes, both of whom have declined federal funds, can saturate the airwaves. Even though he has gained strength, Arizona's McCain can't match this financial firepower. "The character issue can work for McCain here, especially his Vietnam-POW history," says a top state GOP strategist. "I just don't think he'll ever have the money to tell that story." Money isn't Bradley's most pressing concern. With a $20 million war chest, his fund-raising pace is close to Al Gore's. But the Veep has other advantages: the endorsement of popular Governor Gray Davis, strong backing from the AFL-CIO leadership, and solid support from blacks and Hispanics. BEAUTY CONTEST. Bradley state coordinator Gale R. Kaufman insists that low-key organizing and Internet appeals will turn out "an invisible army" of Bradleyites. But in reality, labor and minority votes could be decisive. Union households account for a third of the voting-age population, and minorities are 30% of the electorate. Plus, Gore has pols like Lieutenant Governor Cruz M. Bustamante, the state's most powerful Hispanic officeholder, working hard on his behalf. To make matters tougher for underdogs, California's new open primary is a lot less open than it looks. While anyone can cast a ballot regardless of affiliation, the winner of the "beauty contest" isn't assured of any delegates. In fact, both parties will apportion delegates--367 for the Democrats, 162 for the Republicans--by counting only the ballots of registered party voters. Bradley and McCain, who run strongly with independents, will be at a distinct disadvantage. Geography poses another problem. New York, Ohio, and 13 other states also cast ballots on Mar. 7. This run-everywhere scenario favors Bush and Gore, who can count on their organizational edge with governors and local elected officials to turn out voters. Another complication: Californians aren't paying attention yet. According to Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, 40% of state voters don't know enough about McCain to venture an opinion. The figure is 30% for Bradley. Does that mean the Golden State will turn to dross for the mavericks? Not necessarily. If either Bradley or McCain smites a front-runner early and often, Californians could shift allegiances. In fact, state voters often favor anti-Establishment pols, from Ronald Reagan in 1980 to Democrat Jerry Brown in 1976. "Most voters don't like Washington," says McCain aide Dan Schnur. "California voters like Washington even less." When California moved its primary up, state pols figured for once they would make a difference in the Presidential selection process. Instead, they may end up ratifying the Establishment choices--and snuffing out the insurgents' dreams. Return to top  Smoke Screen Big Tobacco has long claimed that measures to curb smoking are the major reason that U.S. tobacco farmers are suffering financially. But antitobacco forces have maintained that farmers are harmed far more by overseas production and imported leaf. Now, an Agriculture Dept. report sides with the antismoking coalition. It says U.S. companies not only are boosting overseas output and cutting U.S. exports but also buying leaf from such countries as Brazil, where output grew 28% in '99. Return to top | |
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A Trade-Off at the WTO The White House and the European Union are both claiming victory in a recent decision by a World Trade Organization court. Europe challenged a 1974 U.S. trade law that has been used to pry open foreign markets by allowing retaliatory tariffs on imports. In its defense, the U.S. promised to get WTO permission before invoking the statute, as it did in cases involving EU curbs on American beef and bananas. That was good enough for the court, which on Dec. 22 ruled that the law can stand. But it left open a key question: Can Washington ever act unilaterally in trade disputes? Return to top Net Candidates Who is the most cybersavvy Presidential candidate? On Dec. 28, Senator John McCain hit the $1 million mark in donations over the Net. But he's still behind former Senator Bill Bradley, who now has $1.3 million in Net contributions. Veep Al Gore places third, with $900,000, and George W. Bush is a distant fourth, with about $180,000. Return to top |
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