Economic Cassandras projecting a fairly weak first quarter--as consumers retrench after their Christmas splurge--may be in for a surprise, says economist Joseph Carson of Dean Witter Rey-nolds Inc. He notes that at least one economic omen--schedules for auto production--points to continued strength.
According to industry reports, rising motor vehicle sales in December have encouraged Detroit to maintain the strong output plans it unveiled in late November. These call for a 13% increase in car production and an 11% rise in truck output from their fourth-quarter levels--enough, says Carson, to add a full percentage point to the economy's first-quarter growth rate.
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