AP News

Ahead of the Bell: US Unemployment Benefits


WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits last week likely stayed at a level that points to only modest hiring.

Economists forecast that weekly applications rose to a seasonally adjusted 370,000, according to a survey by FactSet. The Labor Department will release the report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

Weekly applications fell in the previous week to 359,000, the lowest level in two months. And the four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to 374,000.

Unemployment benefit applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. When they consistently fall below 375,000, it typically indicates that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

Applications have mostly stayed near or above that level since the spring, coinciding with a weak stretch of hiring.

The economy has added an average of just 87,400 jobs a month since April, down from an average of 226,000 jobs a month in the January-March quarter.

The government reports on September hiring and unemployment Friday. Economists predict employers added 111,000 jobs last month, only slightly more than the 96,000 jobs added in August.

The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in August. The rate fell in August, but only because more people gave up looking for work and weren't counted as unemployed.

Still, there have been some hopeful signs that hiring may improve.

Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that private employers added 162,000 jobs last month, ahead of economists' estimates.

Growth in hiring helped U.S. factories expand in September for the first time since May, according to the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey released Monday.

Job creation at service companies slowed in September, according to a separate survey from the ISM released Wednesday. Still, a surge in consumer demand helped those companies grow at the fastest pace in six months. It that growth continues, hiring will likely pick up.

A key problem is the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter. Most economists see growth staying below 2 percent in the second half of the year.

The economy and job growth are the top issues on most voters' minds in this year's presidential race.


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