As people visit CeBIT 2001, they start to crystallize their view of what the next 12 months holds for the TMT industry. It is not just the new product announcements and which products and solutions are being pushed
by exhibitors – it’s the ‘buzz’ at the show.

It’s which products and services the attendees are flocking to see, and what people are actually talking about at the show.
Predicting trends for the next 12 months is notoriously difficult, and often the predictions are so general as to be meaningless. This is particularly true in Europe, where adoption and usage of technology varies widely between each country, and usually within a country. However, some factors that will be important in the next 12 months are the following.

Economic factors
Economic factors are the single biggest influence on the growth of the TMT market. If the U.S. market does go into recession, this will undoubtedly have an impact on all areas of the TMT market. Many companies have suggested that they will be immune from any economic downturn – be that individually, or in their sector. That is wrong – there is no doubt that different sectors will be hit in different ways, but no industry will be totally unaffected.

The two clear success factors for a TMT sector in a recession are to be able to distinctly demonstrate cost-savings or to generate clear business benefits or revenues. The latter is very difficult in a recession as the benefits need to be tangible, and the user will often expect the supplier to share some of the risks. These two issues will be easily visible in an area such as outsourcing. Recession will also prompt many companies to re-trench and become more conservative.
Another argument is that a U.S. recession may not affect Europe. As the U.S. represents nearly 50% of the global IT market, this seems highly unlikely. U.S. vendors have also started to learn their lessons from previous downturns, and most will not retreat from European investments in order to prioritize domestic investments.

Funding and luck
It is clear that funding will be far more difficult in the next 12 month, and the importance of luck will be crucial in the emergence of surviving TMT companies. Those companies that got funding or stock market listings during the relative ‘good times’ will be able to acquire companies with far better people and products that did not have the good fortune to raise money at the right time.

The big get bigger
It is obvious that in many areas of the TMT world – mobile operators and e-commerce, to name two – that consolidation is creating industry titans. Economic slowdown will drive this process for three reasons: life becoming much harder for startups; mergers growing to raise funds and cut costs; and users wanting to stick to suppliers that they expect to be around in three to five years.

The rise of the multi-channel
The industry is becoming familiar with the term ‘bricks and clicks.’ Convergence between IT and media, and fixed and mobile solutions, means that companies will no longer think of delivering to consumers in just one media.
Frustrating year for new technologies. Many hot technologies have been expected to start taking off over the next 12 months. Examples include m-commerce, ASPs, GPRS, B2B, e-commerce and Bluetooth. It seems all are likely to disappoint, at least in this timeframe. Take Bluetooth – originally December 2000 was mooted as the ‘Bluetooth Christmas,’ yet there are continuing problems with the development of a single standard and inter-operability. Now, volume shipments look unlikely until at least mid-2002