BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : FEBRUARY 5, 2001 ISSUE
INTERNATIONAL -- EUROPEAN COVER STORY The Honchos Hold Forth PIETER KORTEWEG AGE 57 Chairman and CEO of Robeco Group, one of Europe's largest institutional fund managers ON HARD LANDINGS ''After 10 years of rapid growth in the U.S., it's not surprising that there should be a slowdown or recession that will squeeze excesses--like corporate and consumer indebtedness--out of the system. The big question is...whether it will be a hard landing or a hard, hard landing. In my view, this is a recession we will feel, and we won't see the upturn until the fall of 2001. The recession will spread to the rest of the world, though tax cuts and falling energy prices may counter it a bit in Europe. The harder the landing in the U.S., the more Europe will be affected.'' DANIEL BOUTON AGE 50 Chairman and CEO of Societe Generale, France's second-largest bank by market-capitalization ON WORLD GROWTH ''Growth in the U.S. should accelerate again by the end of 2001. Europe can look forward to steady, sustainable growth of 3%. The oil shock has proved temporary, and there are tax cuts on the way. Consumer confidence is high, especially in France. So Europe won't be badly affected by the current slowdown in the U.S. We lag a few years behind the U.S. when it comes to exploiting the productivity gains of the Internet. But they will come.'' NIALL W.A. FITZGERALD AGE 55 Chairman of Unilever PLC, one of the world's top consumer-products companies. Unilever has billions of dollars in U.S. sales and it just added to its American stable with the purchase of Bestfoods ON THE U.S. AND EUROPE ''If I have an area of nervousness, it is the lack of authority and effectiveness within the European Central Bank. If the rest of the world becomes more dependent on Europe, it has a right to expect a more effective and authoritative leadership at the ECB.'' ON A U.S. RECESSION ''The big question is how consumers in the U.S. respond to their sense of being slightly less wealthy because of what is happening in the equity markets. '' RON SOMMER AGE 51 CEO of Deutsche Telekom, which is betting heavily on U.S. growth through its pending acquisition of cell-phone provider VoiceStream ON ECONOMIC CYCLES ''I do not believe the U.S. will experience a hard landing, but it would be prudent for businesses to prepare for such an environment.'' ON INVESTING ''I see opportunities for wise investment in the communications sector. The worst is over. With many companies up for sale and few buyers, prices inevitably move lower.'' MARCO TRONCHETTI PROVERA AGE 52 Chairman and chief executive of Pirelli, the $6.7 billion Italian tire and cable company. In September, Tronchetti sold his Optical Technologies subsidiary to Corning for $3.6 billion ON EUROPE ''There won't be a real resurgence of Europe. It won't be able to take advantage of the slowdown in the U.S. The state still represents too large a presence in the economy. Tax reform and pension reform are vital. Germany remains the leading country in Europe where some degree of modernization is taking place. If Germany can speed up that process, all of Europe will benefit.'' LOUIS SCHWEITZER AGE 58 Chairman of Renault, the French auto company that is recording strong profits after years of restructuring: It's also enjoying the fruits of its partnership with Nissan Motor Co. ON THE EURO AND EUROPE ''My basic assumption is that a fair euro/dollar rate is about one to one,...and I believe we're going in this direction.'' ON CARS ''We're looking for slight growth in the [European car] market but no price hikes, which means we'll have to keep cutting costs. It's not an easy market. Our Japanese competitors are all losing money. So are Ford and GM Europe.'' HEINRICH VON PIERER AGE 60 CEO of German industrial giant Siemens ON RECESSIONS ''I don't think we have to worry about a recession in the U.S. There will be a soft landing.... Naturally we'll be affected if there's a slowdown. We're now a real American company with 90,000 employees and $25 billion annual sales.'' ON REFORMS ''If you take Germany, tax reform will have a positive effect. We need more flexibility from workers. That depends on both the government and the unions. Based on what I've been hearing from unions and workers' councils lately, I think there's reason to be optimistic.'' JEAN-MARIE MESSIER AGE 44 CEO of Vivendi Universal, which has just concluded the merger of the Paris-based Vivendi's media, telecom, and utility groups with the Universal media group in Hollywood ON A SLOWDOWN ''The average European is not frightened by a slowdown in the U.S. market. We European CEOs are thinking today that U.S. yearly growth of 2% to 2.5% is not so bad. There is more fear on the market side than the industrial side. The prospects for growth in all European countries are quite strong for the coming two years.'' ON MERGERS ''I'm surprised there weren't more U.S. acquisitions of European companies.'' _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP					RELATED ITEMS Europe's Big Test (int'l edition) COVER IMAGE: Europe's Big Test CHART: What's Helping Europe CHART: What's Hurting Europe Continental Lift (int'l edition) TABLE: The Honchos Hold Forth INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online

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