BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : JANUARY 29, 2001 ISSUE
INTERNATIONAL -- INT'L COVER STORY

Bush's Crowded Latin Agenda (int'l edition)


If you listened to George W. Bush grope for his foreign-policy sound bites during the campaign debates, it was clear national security was not his strong suit. But he does know something about Mexico from his tenure as governor of Texas. Mexico's new President, Vicente Fox, is one of the few foreign leaders Bush has met several times. And Bush has vowed that Latin America will be one of his top priorities. Delal Baer, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington think tank, notes that Bush's father launched negotiations for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and strongly supported creation of a free trade accord for the hemisphere. ''Sensitivity to Mexico and Latin America runs in the Bush family,'' Baer says.

Much of the Latin America agenda will be focused on trade. Bush's pick for Trade Representative, Robert B. Zoellick, is well-versed in Latin issues and was a key player during the NAFTA negotiations. Bush plans to seek passage of fast-track trade legislation that could pave the way for the Free Trade Area of the Americas, a zone running from Antarctica to Alaska.

It won't be easy, however. Democrats may balk at granting fast-track authority unless Bush guarantees that strict labor and environmental safeguards will be included in any trade pact. Such provisions are anathema to congressional Republicans. The new President will have to decide quickly on a strategy for the next Summit of the Americas, which will bring together leaders of 34 countries in April in Quebec.

MORE SHOOTING? Further south, Bush could face an early test in Colombia, where the U.S. is pumping in $1.3 billion in aid to fight drug trafficking. President Andres Pastrana is to decide by the end of January whether to continue peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a big guerrilla group that profits from the drug trade, or intensify the war by revoking land ceded two years ago to the rebels as a safe haven. ''If the talks break off, the conflict will see a military increase from both sides--and surely a justification for greater U.S. intervention,'' says Marco Romero, an analyst at Codhes, a human-rights group in Bogota. Pleas for more help may fall on deaf ears, however, if Secretary of State Colin Powell fears it will become another Vietnam. ''One should assume that he would do everything possible to make sure that the U.S. does not get sucked into a quagmire,'' says Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank.

But Zoellick has a different approach. Arguing that there is a false distinction between counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics efforts, he said in a recent speech that if Colombia shows it is willing to fight on both fronts, ''the U.S. should offer serious, sustained, and timely financial, material, and intelligence support.'' Latin America could spark sharp debates in Washington over how much the Bush Administration should get entangled in the affairs of foreign nations.

By Geri Smith in Mexico City and Suzanne Timmons in Bogota

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