BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : JANUARY 29, 2001 ISSUE
INTERNATIONAL -- INT'L COVER STORY

Why the Bushies Make Europe Nervous (int'l edition)


With the blueish Parisian light of a mid-January afternoon streaming into his cavernous office, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine pauses to consider the new foreign policy team about to take over in Washington. ''Many of these people,'' Vedrine says slowly, referring to Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell, Vice-President Dick Cheney, and prospective Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, ''last had positions of [government] responsibility over eight years ago. The world has changed a lot since then. So it would be very interesting for them to speak with all their European allies to figure out where we all stand.''

Vedrine is too much the veteran diplomat to state the obvious: Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright--for Europeans, at least--are going to be a hard act to follow. Clinton and Albright were perceived as Europhiles at heart, on more or less the same wavelength as the center-left governments in power throughout much of Europe. Sure, the Europeans would cringe at American grandstanding, such as Albright's definition of the U.S. as the world's one ''indispensable'' country. But basically the Good Guys in the White House were fighting the Bad Guys in Congress, like Senator Jesse Helms, who is deeply mistrustful of the Europeans. The Bad Guys, of course, tended to be Republicans.

And now they're back. While Vedrine thinks that those in charge of the new Administration ''seem to have a pragmatic outlook'' rather than an ideological one, it is clear he's concerned that some of the promises of the Bush campaign may translate into the policies of the Bush Administration. Since France often acts as a rallying point of allied disenchantment with American policy, the French Foreign Minister's point of view is important. Says Vedrine: ''We remain allies of the U.S., but we have an obligation in certain cases to say 'no.'''

GREEN LIGHT. There's no shortage of issues where the French and European ''no'' could soon be heard. Looming large is the determination of the Bush team to move ahead with a U.S. national missile defense (NMD). This, says Vedrine, is an issue that can become a ''big problem--or it can be one that can be managed diplomatically.'' The Europeans worry, for one, that decades of arms control treaties with Moscow will be abrogated if NMD goes ahead, possibly setting off a new arms race. And the Europeans are concerned, more than they let on, about the technological advantages that could be reaped by U.S. industry from the billions in research and development funding connected to NMD. On this issue, Clinton, who left the decision on NMD to his successor, ''has been very sensitive to the preoccupation of the allies,'' Vedrine says. Similarly, Clinton and Albright gave a qualified green light to recent European plans to forge a more autonomous and unified defense capability, the so-called European Defense Initiative. The plan was vigorously opposed by the Pentagon, which worried it would erode NATO's authority. Now the Europeans wonder how the Bush team will react.

Vedrine seems already wistful about the surprisingly close relationship he forged with Albright. The two, who unusually used the highly informal ''tu'' to address each other, had what the French Minister suggestively calls ''an intellectual affair.'' Vedrine recently hosted a goodbye dinner for ''Madeleine'' at a chateau outside Paris. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov flew in for the evening. So did the Foreign Ministers of Britain, Italy, and Germany, as well as the European Union's point man on foreign affairs, former NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana of Spain.

For three hours, the seven drank champagne, laughed, and reminisced about the the work they'd done together. ''You couldn't really imagine having this kind of evening with Gromyko or Foster Dulles,'' says Vedrine, referring to the icy cold war-era Soviet Foreign Minister and U.S. Secretary of State. The question now is whether Colin Powell will also be one of the boys.

By John Rossant in Paris

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