BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : DECEMBER 25, 2000 ISSUE
WHERE TO INVEST -- STRATEGIES FOR STOCKS The Fortune Tellers' Triple Crown The late 1990s were a tough time to be a value investor--especially one based in the New Economy nexus of the San Francisco Bay Area. But 2000 provided sweet revenge for the investment team from Jurika & Voyles in Oakland, Calif. Their mix of economic analysis and old-fashioned value-stock picking gave them top honors among the investing gurus polled by BUSINESS WEEK 12 months ago. The three-man team forecast that the Dow Jones industrial average would be at 11,000 at yearend: They overshot the mark by just 281 points, or 2.6%, on BUSINESS WEEK's Dec. 8 cutoff date. Even closer was the team's prediction of 1,400 for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, off by 2.2%. And its forecast of 3,000 for the volatile Nasdaq Composite Index was just 83 points, or 2.8%, out. Runner-up Edward P. Nicoski, of U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, had the same Dow forecast but was more than 800 points adrift on the Nasdaq. SUMMER OF LOVE. Jurika & Voyles's emphasis on the real economy paid off. ''We just thought that the laws of gravity had to take hold at some point,'' explains Karl O. Mills, vice-chairman of the firm. He compares the late 1990s stretch of overinflated stock values and easy capital to another historic San Francisco event. ''It was like the Summer of Love'' all over again, he says, referring to the influx of hippies into the city's Haight-Ashbury district in 1967. Jurika & Voyles's researchers--Guy R. Elliffe, Eric R. Hull, and Nicholas E. Moore--use economic analysis to pick promising sectors, then sift through stocks within them, searching for bargains with bright-looking futures. ''Our approach is to try to have the best of both worlds,'' says Hull. ''We focus on both value and growth.'' Hull provides the overall economic analysis, Elliffe hunts for bargains, and Moore analyzes their business models. They may be on to something. Their top stock pick for 2000, OM Group Inc. (OMG), a specialty chemical company, is up nearly 50% for the year. They're a little more optimistic about the Dow for 2001, predicting 12,000 by yearend. Stock picks for 2001 include bulk food distributor Sysco Corp. (SYY) and semiconductor manufacturer KLA Tencor (KLAC). If 2000 is any indication, investors might be well advised to take a look at them. By Heather Timmons _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP					RELATED ITEMS Why the Experts Are Upbeat TABLE: Business Week Market Forecast Survey for 2001 (.pdf) The Fortune Tellers' Triple Crown INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online

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