BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : DECEMBER 18, 2000 ISSUE
BOOKS Present Dangers 6 NIGHTMARES Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them By Anthony Lake Little, Brown -- 318pp -- $27.95 Early in his new book, former Clinton National Security Adviser Anthony K. Lake makes a critical point about the seismic shifts toppling traditional defense- and foreign-policy worldviews. Historically, the focus of debate was on the strength of America's enemies. Now, he writes, ''the weakness of other nations can harm the lives of our citizens as much as, or more than, the military strength of potential foes.'' Political unrest in Central America ends up straining Southern California's social services, while market quakes in Indonesia or Mexico send tremors through Wall Street. Indeed, some analysts think China's economic woes may be more of a threat than its military might. These days, it's the global economy, stupid. That's just one of the major challenges facing Washington in years to come, according to Lake, who has returned to academia at Georgetown University and also is an international consultant. Each chapter of 6 Nightmares: Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them starts with a fictitious scenario that explains the threats, from anonymous terrorist acts (highlighted by a hypothetical incident almost identical to the bombing of the USS Cole) to the poisonous partisanship in Washington, which saps the nation's ability to play a constructive role in world affairs. Although not always novel, Lake's threats are thought-provoking and often puckish: When it comes to cyberthreats, he tells his students, he doesn't trust anyone under 30. But if Lake's warnings are valid, his prescriptions are a little light. One of his ideas is to create a new Assistant to the President to coordinate interagency cooperation in the fight against international crime, terrorism, and weapons proliferation. With luck, such a bureaucratic solution may stop interagency warfare, but it's hardly a profound step. More controversial is his recommendation for handling an anonymous attack. If you don't respond, you look weak, but if you lash out at someone without proof of culpability, you seem irresponsible. His solution: covert responses, which are themselves anonymous. But the idea begs another question: If we aren't sure who was responsible, whom do we target? And if we are sure, shouldn't we take stronger, public action? His solution also ignores domestic political considerations: Whenever there is a major incident, such as the 1996 terrorist bombing of the Khobar Towers housing complex in Saudi Arabia, many Americans feel the U.S. should retaliate. Covert action would provide no political boost to the White House, as political aides would be sure to remind the President. In fairness, no one has come up with panaceas for the challenges posed to the U.S. Diplomats, soldiers, and spies face a rapidly changing world where nongovernmental actors often take the lead. We need to keep tabs on the streets, the Internet, and nongovernment organizations, and devise strategies for defusing conflicts before they erupt. Lake's book helps policymakers figure out the right questions. I don't envy those who must devise the answers. By STAN CROCK _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP					RELATED ITEMS Present Dangers PHOTO: Cover, ``6 Nightmares'' INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online

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