BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : OCTOBER 30, 2000 ISSUE
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY Lose the Vote, Win the White House Every day, a half-dozen Presidential tracking polls report on the ebb and flow of the race between Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush. But in an election as close as the 2000 contest has been, the national vote is not the one that really counts. The only tally that matters is in the Electoral College, an obscure institution created by the framers of the Constitution to pick the President. Why the renewed interest in such an archaic body? Because it allots every states' votes to the candidates on a winner-take-all basis. And with a close Presidential election likely, it's possible that the candidate with the most popular votes may well lose out in the Electoral College. While Bush has been clinging to a narrow lead in national polls, Gore, at this point, has a slight advantage in electoral votes. To win, a candidate needs a majority 270 of the total 538 electoral votes. Gore has led in the Electoral College since Labor Day, largely because of his strength in four big states--California, Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania--whose 132 electoral votes would put the Demo-crat nearly halfway to victory. A BUSINESS WEEK analysis, which includes an examination of dozens of polls and interviews with political pros, has Gore leading in 20 states and the District of Columbia. Together, they account for a total of 242 electoral votes. Bush has an edge in 24 states, with 220 electoral votes. Six states, with a total of 76 electoral votes, remain toss-ups: Florida, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arkansas, and New Mexico. At this point, Bush has a larger Electoral College base--he has locked up 181 electoral votes to Gore's 168. But more states are leaning Gore's way: 74 electoral votes narrowly favor Gore, but only 39 lean toward Bush. That's not to say Bush has no hope. He has been gaining steadily on the electoral map in recent weeks, aided by tens of millions of dollars in advertising that Republicans have poured into 17 battleground states, sometimes with meager Democratic response. Indeed, Gore's biggest challenge is to prevail in closely contested states that President Clinton carried in 1992 or 1996 but where Bush has made inroads this year. Among them: Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Arkansas, and the Veep's own home state of Tennessee. Only three times in history--the last in 1888--has a candidate lost the popular vote and triumphed in the Electoral College. While unlikely in 2000, it's plausible. Why? Gore's big-state edge. If the Democrat adds, say, Michigan or Florida to his tally, he could eke out an Electoral College victory while trailing Bush in the popular vote. Another electoral oddity: Bush holds a huge edge in his home state, which carries far more weight in terms of the popular vote than the Electoral College. Indeed, current computer projections find that a Texas landslide could skew the national popular vote by about 1.5 percentage points. But Bush gets the same 32 electoral votes from Texas whether he wins by 1% or 31%. In what could be the closest race since Gerald Ford/Jimmy Carter in 1976, Gore's secret weapon might end up being the Electoral College. By Richard S. Dunham _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP					RELATED ITEMS Which One Can Close the Sale? TABLE: Too Close for Comfort Lose the Vote, Win the White House MAP: Electoral Map INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online

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