BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : SEPTEMBER 25, 2000 ISSUE
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

How Bad a Hit? Three Price Scenarios


Standard & Poor's DRI estimates that oil prices will drift steadily downward 
to $25 a barrel by the end of 2001. It ran the numbers for BUSINESS WEEK on two 
other scenarios: oil rising to $40 a barrel or falling to $20.

                            $20 OIL    $25 OIL    $40 OIL
GDP GROWTH*
2000                          4.3        4.2        4.1
2001                          3.8        3.6        3.2

CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION*
2000                          3.0        3.3        3.8
2001                          1.8        2.0        2.3

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
2000                          4.1        4.1        4.1
2001                          4.4        4.5        4.7


* Change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Oil price used in 
calculations is about $2 less than commonly quoted West Texas Intermediate.

DATA: STANDARD & POOR'S DRI


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