BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : FEBRUARY 28, 2000 ISSUE
INTERNATIONAL -- EUROPEAN COVER STORY Europe Must "Get More People of Working Age" A U.N. population expert talks about the Continent's changing demography The U.N.'s Population Div. will publish a controversial report on Mar. 21 calling for Europe, which has a strong tradition of migration -- especially to the U.S. -- to open its doors more widely to newcomers. Division Director Joseph Chamie believes Europe's declining birth rate will translate into smaller, aging populations. And he says the European Union will need at least 40 million newcomers by 2025 to avoid a decline in the size of its labor force. He recently spoke about European immigration trends with Business Week Brussels Correspondent William Echikson. Here are edited excerpts of their conversation: Q: Why do European [countries] need to take in more immigrants? A: Their populations are declining in numbers and becoming older. This has enormous social, economic, and political implications. Already, there are fewer purchases of toys and more of hair coloring. We have calculated different scenarios, and whichever way you look at it, Europe will experience a 25% to 30% drop in its total population. And the population is aging. In order for Europe to compete in the world, it can't have one worker for every five retirees. The good news is that we are living longer. The bad news is that we can't afford to live longer. There are some temporary options -- either raise the age of retirement or decrease pensions. But in the long run, you have to get more people of working age into the system. Already, the pressure is growing. In 1965, 55% of the male population was in the labor force. Today, it is down below 42% and dropping. Q: Does Europe have a wise immigration policy? A: No. Europe takes in only refugees... [Britain] accepts only a quarter of refugee applications. This encourages people to stay illegally, ignoring that the longer they wait to be [naturalized], the larger the problem. Europe would prefer that this problem go away. There needs to be a real discussion like in the U.S. Here, Bill Gates comes out and says he needs to import foreign software programmers. Business in America has taken a strong line on this issue, calling for more immigrants. Europe's business community needs to do the same -- even more, because of its declining population. It's just not good public policy only to take in asylum seekers. You need to recruit trained workers. These immigrants are entrepreneurial catalysts. All you have to do is go to Silicon Valley and take a look. America is particularly good at allowing in talented foreigners and making them Americans. In Europe, the naturalization laws are too stiff. Worse, in Austria, France, and elsewhere, you have substantial numbers of people voting for parties that are anti-immigrant. Even in Scandinavia, groups are emerging against immigrants. Q: Why this reticence to face up to the problem in Europe? Is it because of high unemployment? A: No, this is an emotionally provocative issue. Europe doesn't have a tradition [of immigration] like the U.S. and Canada. The Continent doesn't see itself as an immigration destination. Many countries never have had immigrants. Until the end of 1999, Italy only had a Department for Emigration. The Irish also traditionally sent people away rather than imported them. So when I talk to Europeans, this issue doesn't ring a bell. They don't see themselves as recipient countries, despite their declining and aging populations. Q: But don't immigrants cost more than they contribute? A: Maybe in the short term there is a net drain, with immigrants consuming a lot of services such as education. But the longer people stay, the more positive their impact. Studies in the U.S. show that an immigrant costs the community about $2,500 in his or her first year after arrival. But within a few years, the contribution becomes positive as they enter the work force. Over 50 years, the positive contribution is more than $80,000 per person. It also depends on the mix. If you take in the destitute, they consume social services. If you take in the highly skilled, they contribute immediately. Q: Your report hasn't even come out, but articles are appearing about its conclusions. What has been the reaction? A: Our report has created an avalanche of debate and interest. We're getting calls from journalists all across the world. We're also getting some hate mail, people telling us that we are threatening the Christian nature of their countries. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP					Unsung Heroes (int'l edition) EUROPEAN COVER IMAGE: Unsung Heroes CHART: Where Europe's Immigrants Go TABLE: Showing Initiative TABLE: Fortress Europe ONLINE ORIGINAL: "There Are More Opportunities for Everyone" ONLINE ORIGINAL: Europe Must "Get More People of Working Age" INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online

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