BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : DECEMBER 27, 1999 ISSUE
BUSINESSWEEK INVESTOR -- INSIDE WALL STREET

Time to Gather Up Fallen Silverleaf?


The downward trend on the chart below looks like a mirror image of the typical Net stock movement. Silverleaf Resorts (SVR), a Big Board-listed operator of vacation time-shares for the low-budget crowd, has been ignored by investors. Yet it's making money, and its revenues are expected to jump to $299 million in 2000, up from $223 million in 1999 and $160 million in 1998. Although the robust economy allows many people to take vacations, shares of time-share companies have yet to ignite investor interest. And since Silverleaf is a small-cap stock, with its stock trading at 6 1/2 with a market value of less than $100 million, it has yet to get on to the radar screens of big institutions.

One money manager who hasn't given up on Silverleaf is Geoffrey Nixon of MCM Associates, which has held on to its 6% stake. The stock, which has dropped from nearly 9 in late July to 6 1/2 on Dec. 15, is worth 27, based on 15 times estimated earnings of $1.80 a share in 2000, says Nixon. Silverleaf is a good growth stock, he insists: It's predicted to grow at a 20% annual pace over the next two years.

Silverleaf Chairman and CEO Robert Mead says the combination of an improved business climate and stagnant stock prices will drive the industry into continued consolidation. He declined to say whether Silverleaf has gotten a buyout offer. ''We are the low-cost operators in the industry, so we offer very competitive prices,'' he adds. Silverleaf's resorts are in regions that its customers are able to drive to.

By GENE G. MARCIAL

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Time to Gather Up Fallen Silverleaf?

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