| BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : DECEMBER 27, 1999 ISSUE | ||||||||
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| WHERE TO INVEST -- STRATEGIES FOR STOCKS
The Bull Market Ain't Over Till It's Over Americans think that stocks are overpriced. At the same time, they think that stocks are headed a lot higher. Reckless? Maybe. But it's hard to be too critical--it's the cockeyed optimists who have been the big winners in the bull market of the 1990s. Some 58% of the people who answered the BUSINESS WEEK/Harris Poll said the stock market is ''very'' or ''somewhat'' overpriced. But it seems there's a new theory of stock-market physics: What goes up must keep going up. Fully 52% believe that stocks will go up next year, vs. less than 40% who thought so in the three previous annual surveys. And despite the huge advance in price-earnings ratios, 27% of the respondents predict that the market will produce long-run total returns averaging 12% a year or better. Some interesting results didn't fit into these summary tables. Speaking of inconsistency, people aged 18-24 were the most likely to predict the stock market would go up in 2000 (63% thought so), but also the most likely to forecast a crash in the coming year (67%). This year's poll took a close look at the Internet. Among people who described themselves as heavy users of the Internet, 22% said they own Internet stocks, while just 6% of people who don't use personal computers said they own Internet stocks. (To be sure, heavy Internet users are twice as likely to own any kind of stock as people who don't use PCs--most likely simply a reflection of their greater wealth.) And here's a statistic that might give you pause: 64% of heavy online users think Internet stocks are overvalued, vs. 44% of nonusers of PCs. We also found that investing over the Internet isn't quite as pervasive as one might guess. Among heavy Internet users, 19% said they generally buy and sell stocks via the Internet, while 43% said they generally use the phone and 22% said they usually do it in person. A note of caution about the last two questions: There was a huge increase in the percentage of people who said that they buy and sell stocks mainly through their employers. That's because we offered that as one of the answers this year, whereas in the past respondents had to volunteer it. Because of that change, one should not compare 1999's results with 1998's. By PETER COY _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP |
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RELATED ITEMS The Bull Market Ain't Over Till It's Over TABLE: Business Week/Harris Poll (extended) INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online | |||
