| BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : DECEMBER 27, 1999 ISSUE | ||||||||
| ||||||||
 | ||||||||
| WHERE TO INVEST -- STRATEGIES FOR STOCKS
Wall Street? What's That? (int'l edition) These pros say the action is on foreign bourses Go international! That's the overwhelming advice from 8 of the 10 fearless forecasters we asked to predict where global stock markets will be at the end of 2000. Indeed, not one of our panelists expects Wall Street to be the best-performing market among the majors. Just a year ago, the mood was completely different: Caution about foreign markets was the order of the day among our experts, three of whom picked Wall Street as having the best prospects. Not that you could blame them then. A year ago, Asia was still in crisis, and Russia had just defaulted on its bond issues. Besides that, fears that the millennium bug would disrupt business around the world were high; confidence that the U.S. economy would hold up through all of this was low. It figures that some analysts believe that last year's sizzling returns will cool a little in 2000. And true to form, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Edward E. Yardeni in New York, who consistently gave the lowest estimates last year, is still predicting a six-month Y2K recession. This year, he has company on the pessimistic side of the street. New panelist Marc Faber, who runs his own investment firm in Hong Kong, even urges us to forget about equities altogether--and buy gold, cocoa, sugar, wheat, or corn instead. ''After a 20-year bear market, commodities have bottomed out,'' he says. CLOSE TO THE MARK. But if you're going to invest in stocks, then Faber suggests taking a look at Japan. Three others of the 10 agree. Sheila H. Coco, a fund manager at Fiduciary Trust Co. International in New York, says that's because ''important structural changes are creating investment opportunities.'' Last year, Coco was among the five experts who predicted that the Nikkei index would reach at least the 17,000 level. Now she says it could well end 2000 at 22,000. Two pros pick Brazil as their top market. One of them, James Clunie, of Murray Johnstone International Ltd. in London, believes Brazil's Bovespa index could hit 17,000, because ''the economic recovery will continue and the market is cheap relative to earnings-growth potential.'' Last year his prediction for Brazil--9,900--was one of two that came closest to the mark. Germany is another favorite because it has started restructuring and ''it faces the least hostile interest-rate environment,'' says Joseph Rooney of Lehman Brothers in London. In polling our experts, there was one surprise: We didn't hear much from them about the much discussed New Economy and its spread around the globe as an investment theme. We'll just have to assume they know something that others don't. By SUSAN BERFIELD _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP |
|  |
 | |
RELATED ITEMS Wall Street? What's That? (int'l edition) TABLE: Business Week's 2000 International Market Forecast INTERACT E-Mail to Business Week Online | |||
