Business Week Economic Forecast Survey for 2000
|
| |
PERCENT CHANGE IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2000 |
 |
REAL
GDP | CONSUMER
PRICES |
| TREASURY YIELDS |
| 3-MO. | 30-YR. |
|
JOBLESS
RATE |
| |
| |
|
| | I |
II |
III |
IV |
|
PERCENT CHANGE
IV Q 1999 TO IV Q 2000 |
2000
IVQ |
2000
IVQ |
2000
IVQ |
|
| WAYNE ANGELL Bear Stearns |
3.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
4.0% |
1.5% |
5.30% |
6.20% |
3.9% |
|
| ROSANNE M. CAHN Credit Suisse First Boston |
3.0 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
|
3.8 |
2.1 |
6.10 |
6.75 |
3.7 |
|
| DAVID L. LITTMANN Comerica |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
3.8 |
2.7 |
5.30 |
6.45 |
4.0 |
|
| CONSTANTINE G. SORAS Andrew, Alexander, Wise |
4.1 |
2.9 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
|
3.7 |
2.2 |
5.38 |
6.55 |
3.8 |
|
| ANTHONY CHAN Banc One Investment Advisors |
2.1 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
|
3.6 |
2.6 |
5.70 |
6.70 |
4.1 |
|
| GAIL FOSLER The Conference Board |
3.9 |
1.2 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
|
3.6 |
2.5 |
5.50 |
6.50 |
3.8 |
|
| STEPHEN D. SLIFER Lehman Brothers |
2.3 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
|
3.6 |
1.8 |
5.75 |
6.35 |
4.0 |
|
| RICHARD YAMARONE Argus Research |
2.6 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
|
3.6 |
2.5 |
5.05 |
6.25 |
4.2 |
|
| RICHARD BERNER/DAVID GREENLAW Morgan Stanley Dean Witter |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
|
3.5 |
2.8 |
6.00 |
6.70 |
4.0 |
|
| KATHLEEN M. CAMILLI Tucker Anthony, Freedom Securities |
4.0 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
2.5 |
5.80 |
5.00 |
3.6 |
|
| STEPHEN GALLAGHER Société Générale |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
3.4 |
2.4 |
6.00 |
5.90 |
3.9 |
|
| MORRIS COHEN Morris Cohen & Associates |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
|
3.3 |
2.6 |
5.30 |
6.40 |
4.3 |
|
| SUSAN HICKOK Prudential Insurance Co. of America |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
3.3 |
2.8 |
5.10 |
6.00 |
4.5 |
|
| DANIEL E. LAUFENBERG American Express Financial Advisors |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
|
3.3 |
3.0 |
5.70 |
6.60 |
4.2 |
|
| MICHAEL R. PASLAWSKYJ The CIT Group |
2.0 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
|
3.3 |
2.0 |
4.90 |
5.70 |
4.2 |
|
| ALLEN SINAI Primark Decision Economics |
3.2 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
|
3.3 |
2.6 |
5.61 |
6.57 |
4.2 |
|
| ROBERT H. CHANDROSS Republic National Bank of New York |
3.3 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
|
3.2 |
2.7 |
5.70 |
6.25 |
4.1 |
|
| JIM COONS Huntington National Bank |
2.3 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
|
3.2 |
3.0 |
5.50 |
6.50 |
4.2 |
|
| JAMES COOPER & KATHLEEN MADIGAN Business Week |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
3.2 |
2.8 |
5.80 |
6.75 |
3.9 |
|
| ROBERT DICLEMENTE Salomon Smith Barney/Citibank |
2.9 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
|
3.2 |
2.3 |
5.65 |
5.90 |
4.3 |
|
| WILLIAM C. DUDLEY Goldman Sachs |
2.3 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
|
3.2 |
2.6 |
6.00 |
6.70 |
3.8 |
|
| JOSEPH LIRO Stone & McCarthy Research |
2.2 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
|
3.2 |
2.6 |
5.80 |
6.50 |
3.9 |
|
| IAN SHEPHERDSON High Frequency Economics |
1.5 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
|
3.2 |
2.0 |
5.00 |
5.50 |
4.5 |
|
| DAVID M. BLITZER Standard & Poor's |
2.1 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
|
3.1 |
1.9 |
5.40 |
6.30 |
4.0 |
|
| KEVIN LOGAN Dresdner Kleinwort Benson |
2.3 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
|
3.1 |
2.1 |
5.12 |
5.82 |
4.3 |
|
| LYNN REASER Bank of American Private Bank |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
|
3.1 |
2.3 |
5.25 |
5.95 |
4.1 |
|
| SUZANNE RIZZO Maria Fiorini Ramirez |
4.5 |
3.8 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
|
3.1 |
2.3 |
5.00 |
6.50 |
4.4 |
|
| BILL CHENEY John Hancock Financial Services |
3.0 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
|
3.0 |
2.4 |
5.25 |
6.30 |
4.4 |
|
| TIM O'NEILL Harris Bank/Bank of Montreal |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
|
3.0 |
3.0 |
5.50 |
6.85 |
3.9 |
|
| KENNETH T. MAYLAND KeyCorp. |
2.2 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
|
2.9 |
2.6 |
6.36 |
6.65 |
4.0 |
|
| JOEL L. NAROFF Naroff Economic Advisors |
1.6 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
|
2.9 |
2.4 |
5.70 |
5.70 |
4.1 |
|
| DAVID ORR First Union |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.3. |
3.5 |
|
2.9 |
2.4 |
5.75 |
6.50 |
4.2 |
|
| J. PRAKKEN/C VARVARES Macroeconomic Advisers |
2.9 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
|
2.9 |
2.4 |
5.25 |
6.30 |
4.5 |
|
| DAVID H. RESLER Nomura Securities Intl. |
2.3 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.4 |
|
2.9 |
1.5 |
5.00 |
5.85 |
4.3 |
|
| THOMAS W. SYNNOTT U.S. Trust Co. of N.Y. |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
|
2.9 |
2.5 |
5.00 |
6.30 |
4.0 |
|
| MICHAEL P. CAREY Credit Lyonnais |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
|
2.9 |
2.6 |
5.75 |
6.15 |
4.4 |
|
| ROBERT McGEE Tokai Bank |
2.1 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
2.8 |
3.1 |
6.25 |
5.50 |
3.9 |
|
| MARK ZANDI RFA Dismal Sciences |
2.0 |
4.1 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
|
2.8 |
2.2 |
5.60 |
6.20 |
4.4 |
|
| WILLIAM A. BROWN J. P. Morgan |
3.0 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
|
2.8 |
2.3 |
5.50 |
6.75 |
4.0 |
|
| MICHAEL R. ENGLUND Standard & Poor's MMS |
1.5 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
|
2.7 |
2.2 |
5.40 |
5.50 |
4.0 |
|
| KURT E. KARL WEFA |
1.0 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
|
2.7 |
2.5 |
5.30 |
6.40 |
4.4 |
|
| SUNG WON SOHN Wells Fargo |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
|
2.7 |
2.7 |
5.75 |
6.40 |
4.4 |
|
| WYNN VAN BUSSMANN DaimlerChrysler |
1.9 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
|
2.7 |
2.6 |
5.00 |
6.00 |
4.5 |
|
| MAUREEN F. ALLYN Scudder Kemper Investments |
3.2 |
1.7 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
|
2.6 |
2.2 |
5.90 |
6.30 |
4.4 |
|
| RICHARD DEKASER National City |
1.7 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
|
2.6 |
2.6 |
5.40 |
5.80 |
4.3 |
|
| ROBERT H. SHROUDS Dupont |
2.2 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
|
2.5 |
2.1 |
5.30 |
6.20 |
4.3 |
|
| HENRY WILLMORE Barclays Capital |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
1.0 |
|
2.4 |
2.6 |
5.40 |
6.00 |
4.3 |
|
| STUART G. HOFFMAN PNC Bank |
0.8 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
|
2.3 |
2.2 |
5.00 |
5.90 |
4.4 |
|
| MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi |
1.7 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
|
2.3 |
2.8 |
5.60 |
6.90 |
4.5 |
|
| NICHOLAS S. PERNA Perna Associates |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
|
2.2 |
2.9 |
5.25 |
6.03 |
4.3 |
|
| CONSENSUS |
2.6% |
3.3% |
3.2% |
3.1% |
|
3.1% |
2.4% |
5.49% |
6.23% |
4.2% |
|
