| BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : DECEMBER 27, 1999 ISSUE | ||||||||
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| WHERE TO INVEST -- INTRODUCTION
Riding the Bull into 2000 BUSINESS WEEK gives investors an advance look at where the smart money's heading Too bad this investment outlook doesn't look a millennium ahead. Predicting the next 1,000 years is a breeze compared to predicting the next 12 months. Anything you say sounds plausible, and no one will ever know whether you were right or wrong: Martian real estate! Undersea amusement parks! Brain transplants! A one-year forecast, by contrast, is tough. Nevertheless, BUSINESS WEEK's annual Investment Outlook has a better record than most. We've been optimistic through the 1990s, when many pros were pessimists. We're running with the bulls again this year. This 67-page Special Report pulls together the latest thinking from the best minds on Wall Street and around the world. Although they don't get it right every time, you can study their ideas to improve your investment savvy. Or, if you think you know better than the seers we quote, you can bet against them. Either way, you can't lose by staying abreast of what the smart money is saying and doing. Now, on to the forecasts. The big story of 2000 will once again be technology. Tech--especially the Internet--was the way to get rich in 1999. Tech-stock mutual funds doubled in value (page 144). Initial public offerings turned nerds into overnight billionaires. Will tech stocks keep soaring? You can survey the debate in our overview of the stock market (page 92), our closeup on Internet stocks (page 94), and our guide to valuing ''e-tailers'' (page 98). Most of our savants say you can still make money in U.S. tech stocks if you buy selectively. The online revolution is gaining speed outside the U.S. as well. See our stories on Latin American tech stocks (page 120), Asian tech stocks (page 118), and international small-cap plays (page 110) for details. The Internet also features prominently in our story about investment opportunities in Europe (page 114). If Net stock prices are more than you can stomach, read our story on ''non-dot.coms''--companies like Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and Federal Express parent FDX Corp. (FDX) that are making a bundle by providing Internet players with essential equipment or services (page 102). Then riffle over to our story about companies, many of them Internet plays, that short-sellers think are primed to crash and burn (page 104). Before betting against the Net, just remember that the biggest losers of 1999 were the naysayers: short-sellers, those who bet on low-priced ''value'' stocks, investors who shunned stocks in favor of bonds. Will 2000 be the year they finally turn out to be right? Check out our stories on Old Economy stocks (page 108) and the bond market (page 150). For curmudgeons, it was a pleasure to see the public make better forecasts than the professionals, who scored blooper after blooper (page 126). The public has been consistently more cheerful--and more correct. Contrast the public's view in our BUSINESS WEEK/Harris poll (page 132) with our money-manager contest and survey of pros (pages 138 and 122). Then flip to our BUSINESS WEEK Economic Outlook (page 84). The average forecast of the 50 economists we surveyed this year was for the U.S. economy to grow 3.1% in the coming year. That's also the forecast of BUSINESS WEEK forecasters James Cooper and Kathleen Madigan. If they're right, 2000 should see rising corporate profits without resurgent inflation. Add in stories about investing through the Web (page 156), Washington's technology policies (page 90), the international art market (page 162), and hedge funds (page 154), and you end up with a package of information that should slake any armchair investor's thirst for knowledge. Go to it! By PETER COY _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP |
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