BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : NOVEMBER 22, 1999 ISSUE
COVER STORY -- THE MICROSOFT RULING

Reshuffling the Deck


HANDHELDS...

WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?
Microsoft dominates the world of desktop computing, but the hot emerging growth market is handheld devices--from pocket organizers to smart cell phones.

WHO'S LEADING THE OPPOSITION?
3Com's Palm division and Symbian, a consortium of cell phone manufacturers.

WHAT'S THE LIKELY OUTCOME?
Microsoft won't dominate this market for the foreseeable future because Palm devices have proven superior to gizmos based on its Windows CE operating system.


INTERACTIVE TV...

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
The arrival of broadband connections to peoples' homes offers ultrafast, two-way communications, entertainment, and shopping via a new generation of set-top boxes. Microsoft wants to supply the operating system.

WHO'S LEADING THE OPPOSITION?
Sun Microsystems and Liberate Technologies

WHAT'S THE LIKELY OUTCOME?
Cable TV companies seem wary of letting Microsoft control the standards in their industry. But the billions Microsoft is pumping into cable giants could give it an edge.


WORLD WIDE WEB...

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
The network, not the desktop, is where the action is moving.

WHO'S LEADING THE OPPOSITION?
Sun Microsystems, IBM, America Online, Yahoo!

WHAT'S THE LIKELY OUTCOME?
Microsoft is well-positioned to supply the basic software to run Web sites. But Windows becomes less important, and Microsoft is an also-ran as a Web portal.


SOFTWARE SERVICES...

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
With the Web, software can be reduced to ''applets,'' which are rented as needed, but not purchased the way Microsoft Windows or Office is.

WHO'S LEADING THE OPPOSITION?
Sun Microsystems and Intuit

WHAT'S THE LIKELY OUTCOME?
Microsoft says it will deliver software services over the Web, but it will probably try to protect its cash cow applications business.


LINUX...

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Linux is a free operating system, being upgraded by volunteers, and increasingly capable of challenging Windows on Web servers.

WHO'S LEADING THE OPPOSITION?
Red Hat Software and Caldera Systems.

WHAT'S THE LIKELY OUTCOME?
Linux itself isn't a major threat to Microsoft on the desktop. But it could grab 20% of the server business.



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