BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : NOVEMBER 8, 1999 ISSUE
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

On Course?


CORPORATE PROFITS
Third-quarter earnings--running 21% ahead of last year's--show that business is keeping up with the pressures being exerted by rising energy costs and tight labor markets.

PRODUCTIVITY
Strong quarterly profits indicate that companies are still improving efficiency. That makes it less likely that the Fed sees strong growth as inflationary.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Are consumers becoming more cautious? In October, consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month, with a larger number of consumers expecting the economy to slow over the next six months.

INTEREST RATES
Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped as high as 6.4% in October, a sign that the markets are already expecting a third quarter-point hike by the Fed.

STOCK MARKET
While somewhat volatile on a daily basis, the market may have settled into a trading range where many experts say it could remain until yearend.

HOUSING
Housing starts and existing home sales are showing increasing weakness with mortgage rates above 8%, although the slowdown in both is off historic highs.



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