| BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : OCTOBER 25, 1999 ISSUE | ||||||||
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| INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
The World's Worst Nuclear Nightmare? Pakistan's coup has put a risk-taking general in charge The Oct. 12 news from Pakistan sent a chill through the world's capitals. A hawkish military general, Pervaiz Musharraf, had seized power in a bloodless coup and ousted that country's dem-ocratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Exactly where Musharraf stood on using nuclear weapons, transferring nuclear technology to Islamic fundamentalist friends, or provoking further conflict with longtime enemy India was a bleak and scary unknown. ''This is exactly the kind of thing we have always worried about,'' says nonproliferation expert Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. ''This sends the red alarm lights off.'' With good reason: The coup d'etat in Pakistan is the first-ever coup in a nuclear weapons state. Russia came close in 1991, but that coup was put down quickly by Boris N. Yeltsin. In Pakistan's case, the potential threat is more severe because its new leader, Gen. Musharraf, is a known risk-taker in his previous dealings with neighboring nuclear state India. Troops under his direction were responsible for the incursions into Indian-controlled Kashmir that sharply increased tensions with India in July and nearly led to all-out war. It was only Prime Minister Sharif, under pressure from Washington and other powers, who ordered the military to back down. That humiliation for the army strained already tense relations with Sharif. The final straw came when Sharif tried to sack Musharraf and replace him with his chief intelligence officer, Gen. Zia Uddin Butt. Musharraf's initial speech after taking over compounded fears about military rule. Rather than wear a dress uniform when he appeared on Pakistani television, Musharraf wore combat fatigues that recalled his previous experience as a commando in Kashmir. In his speech, he blamed Sharif for destroying government institutions and trying to sow discord within the army. He then postponed a second scheduled address on whether the military would seek a return to civilian, democratic rule. Early reports said he had asked President Rafiq Tarrar to remain in office. India initially put troops on its border with Pakistan on a high state of alert, but it also signaled a willingness to talk with whatever institution was in charge in Pakistan. ''Some people here even feel better to deal with the military directly now,'' notes Kanti Bajpai, international relations professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. ''While the army was in the shadows, things were too murky.'' Pakistanis, weary of economic hardship and endemic corruption, gave military rule a similarly muted reaction. Some welcomed the news with cheering in the streets. Others lamented that Pakistan again would be ruled by generals, as it has been for half of its 52 years of independence. All hoped that whoever is in charge can help pull Pakistan out of its impoverishment. The country this year defaulted on $3.3 billion in loans from other governments and $877 million in loans from commercial banks. Already Pakistan, alone with Russia, carries Standard & Poor's lowest credit rating, SD, for Selective Default. IMF'S DILEMMA. This situation could deteriorate further if aid is now suspended. Pakistan is currently under a $1.8 billion International Monetary Fund program, which officials warn could be in jeopardy. ''The change in government clearly will have implications for how we go forward and possible implications for the economy,'' says IMF spokesman Thomas Dawson. It's a tricky situation for the IMF and for Washington. If they withdraw aid, they could destabilize an already unstable economy. They might also drive a military with fundamentalist sympathies further into radical Islamic camps. Musharraf has ties to the fundamentalist Taliban in Afghanistan. And Sharif has previously said terrorists were being trained with Pakistan army backing in Afghanistan. An unstable, fundamentalist-leaning nuclear power is a prospect far scarier than the old Soviet threat. ''Pakistan, the world's smallest and poorest nuclear country, is telling us the nuclear future is going to be unstable,'' says Carnegie's Cirincione. It's a message the world doesn't need to hear. By Sheri Prasso in New York and Shahid-ur-Rehman in Islamabad, with bureau reports _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ BACK TO TOP |
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