BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : SEPTEMBER 20, 1999 ISSUE
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INTERNATIONAL -- EUROPEAN BUSINESS

Handicapping German Reforms


THE CHANCES

-- Center-right victory in Saarland shows voters are willing to accept reforms if properly packaged.

-- Opposition gains will help persuade dissidents in the center-left SPD to tone down rhetoric, accept compromise.

-- All factions agree reforms are needed; room for consensus exists.


THE RISKS

-- More poor election results for the SPD could fatally weaken Chancellor Schroder's authority.

-- The opposition could choose to blockade Schroder's proposals rather than seek compromise.

-- High unemployment means that eastern German voters are in an ugly mood and thus unpredictable.



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RELATED ITEMS
For Schroder, Bad News, Good News? (int'l edition)

TABLE: Saarland at a Glance

TABLE: Handicapping German Reforms



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