BUSINESSWEEK ONLINE : MARCH 1, 1999 ISSUE
READERS REPORT

For an Enduring Economy, Strengthen the Workforce


Aaron Bernstein's article ''Social Security: Go Refigure'' (News: Analysis & Commentary, Feb. 8) is right on target about having a lot to worry about regarding our economy's long-term prospects.

Our gradually aging population will result in a shrinking labor force, which will slow the growth of our economy. Increasing productivity will mitigate some of the aging effect, but in 25 to 30 years our economy will be in a weakened condition.

There are estimates of a shortfall of $300 billion to $500 billion arising between the payroll tax revenues and the Social Security benefits that are payable by that time. To cover this shortfall we will have to sell some mix of Social Security Trust Fund bonds, Social Security Trust stocks, and privately owned equities, at a rate of over $1 billion a day. In a weakened economy, will there be enough buyers? What will this sell-off do to the equities market? Will foreigners continue to underwrite what will then be our ever-increasing trade deficit?

One way to correct this disturbing long-term projection is to turn the shrinking labor pool around. Congress needs to adopt policies that result in increasing our productive labor pool. Education and training, particularly for the underachieving underclass, would enable us to deepen the productive labor pool. At the same time, such a policy would reduce the social costs of welfare and prisons.

Edward A. Bryant
New York


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