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Economic Forecast Survey for 1999 (.pdf)NOTE: To preserve the exact look of this table as it appears in the magazine, it has been saved in Adobe's Acrobat portable document file (.pdf) format. It may then be viewed with the Adobe Acrobat Reader. If don't already have Adobe's Acrobat Reader software installed on your machine, visit Adobe's Acrobat Web site at: http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html and follow the instructions to download the helper application for your computer system. Once you have installed the software, use the "Back" button on your browser to return to BW Online. Click here for a .pdf version of this table.
PERCENT CHANGE IN REAL
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
1999
I II III IV
--------------------------
ROSANNE M. CAHN
Credit Suisse First Boston 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9
KATHLEEN M. CAMILLI
Tucker Anthony 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.0
CONSTANTINE G. SORAS
Bell Atlantic 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0
WILLIAM C. DUNKELBERG
Natl. Fed. of Indep. Business 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.7
DANIEL E. LAUFENBERG
American Express Fin. Advisors 3.1 2.3 2.7 2.9
MICHAEL R. ENGLUND
MMS International 2.5 2.7 2.4 3.0
JOEL NAROFF
First Union Corp. 1.2 2.3 3.2 3.6
SUSAN HICKOK
The Prudential Insurance Co. 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0
SUZANNE RIZZO
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
JAMES J. BARKOCY
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7
MAURY HARRIS
PaineWebber 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4
MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 2.3 2.4 2.1 3.0
TIM O'NEILL
Bank of Montreal/Harris Bank 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.2
IAN SHEPHERDSON
High Frequency Economics 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.8
BILL CHENEY
John Hancock Financial Services 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.1
JOHN R. WILLIAMS
Bankers Trust 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
MICHAEL R. PASLAWSKYJ
The CIT Group 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
MARTIN A. REGALIA
U.S. Chamber of Commerce 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.7
DICK BERNER
Mellon Bank 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.4
J. PRAKKEN & C. VARVARES
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0
ROBERT H. SHROUDS
Du Pont 0.5 1.4 2.8 3.8
THEODORE H. TUNG
National City Corp. 2.0 2.4 1.8 2.8
MORRIS COHEN
Morris Cohen & Associates 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.4
JIM COONS
Huntington National Bank 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3
JOSEPH W. DUNCAN
The Dun & Bradstreet Corp. 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.3
STEPHEN GALLAGHER
Societe Generale 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0
VAN JOLISSAINT
DaimlerChrysler 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3
KURT E. KARL
WEFA 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.6
KEN MAYLAND
Key Corp. 2.0 1.5 1.5 3.0
SUNG WON SOHN
Wells Fargo & Co. 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8
DAVID M. BLITZER
Standard & Poor's 1.4 1.0 2.7 2.7
ROBERT H. CHANDROSS
Republic National Bank of New York 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.3
NICHOLAS S. PERNA
Fleet Financial Group 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.6
RICHARD D. RIPPE
Prudential Securities 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3
DAVID A. WYSS
Standard & Poor's DRI 1.3 1.1 2.4 2.3
MICHAEL P. CAREY
Credit Lyonnais 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.3
JAMES COOPER & KATHLEEN MADIGAN
Business Week 2.1 1.2 1.6 1.7
STUART G. HOFFMAN
PNC Bank Corp. 1.8 1.5 1.5 2.0
CHARLES REEDER
Charles Reeder Associates 0.1 -0.1 2.9 3.9
THOMAS SYNNOTT
U.S. Trust Co. of N.Y. 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0
MARK ZANDI
Regional Financial Associates 1.3 0.6 1.0 3.8
MAUREEN F. ALLYN
Scudder Kemper Investments 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.3
WILLIAM C. DUDLEY
Goldman Sachs 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.8
L. DOUGLAS LEE
HSBC Securities 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.5
LYNN O. MICHAELIS
Weyerhaeuser Co. 1.8 0.7 2.3 1.5
DAVID RESLER
Nomura Securities Intl. 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.7
BRUCE STEINBERG
Merrill Lynch 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.1
ANTHONY CHAN
Banc One Investment Advisors 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.4
ROBERT A. BRUSCA
The Nikko Securities Co. 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.6
ROBERT McGEE
Tokai Bank Ltd. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.0
PHILIP BRAVERMAN
DKB Securities (USA) 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
JOHN LIPSKY
Chase Manhattan Bank 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.3
EDWARD YARDENI
Deutsche Bank Securities 2.2 1.5 0.0 -1.0
WILLIAM A. BROWN
J. P. Morgan 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 1.5
RONALD R. REUSS
Piper Jaffray 0.5 0.0 -1.0 -2.0
CONSENSUS 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.2%
(treasury
REAL CONSUMER yields) JOBLESS
GDP PRICES 3-MO. 30-YR. RATE
---------------------------------
IV Q 98 1999 1999 1999
TO IV Q 99 IV Q IV Q IV Q
(% CHANGE)
ROSANNE M. CAHN
Credit Suisse First Boston 3.2 2.0 4.50 4.80 4.8
KATHLEEN M. CAMILLI
Tucker Anthony 3.0 2.3 5.00 5.50 4.0
CONSTANTINE G. SORAS
Bell Atlantic 2.9 2.1 4.36 5.20 4.4
WILLIAM C. DUNKELBERG
Natl. Fed. of Indep. Business 2.8 1.9 4.60 5.00 4.9
DANIEL E. LAUFENBERG
American Express Fin. Advisors 2.8 2.5 4.75 5.75 4.4
MICHAEL R. ENGLUND
MMS International 2.7 2.6 4.05 4.50 4.3
JOEL NAROFF
First Union Corp. 2.6 2.4 .25 5.25 5.1
SUSAN HICKOK
The Prudential Insurance Co. 2.5 2.2 4.50 6.00 5.2
SUZANNE RIZZO
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 2.5 2.5 4.50 6.00 4.8
JAMES J. BARKOCY
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2.4 2.2 4.50 5.40 4.9
MAURY HARRIS
PaineWebber 2.4 2.2 4.20 5.00 4.5
MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 2.4 2.2 4.50 5.15 4.7
TIM O'NEILL
BanK of Montreal/Harris Bank 2.4 3.0 5.25 6.45 4.4
IAN SHEPHERDSON
High Frequency Economics 2.4 2.5 4.50 5.50 4.0
BILL CHENEY
John Hancock Financial Services 2.3 2.3 4.25 5.40 4.8
JOHN R. WILLIAMS
Bankers Trust 2.3 2.9 4.60 5.50 4.3
MICHAEL R. PASLAWSKYJ
The CIT Group 2.2 2.0 4.00 4.90 5.0
MARTIN A. REGALIA
U.S. Chamber of Commerce 2.2 2.4 4.30 5.40 5.0
DICK BERNER
Mellon Bank 2.1 1.9 3.80 5.20 4.9
J. PRAKKEN & C. VARVARES
Macroeconomic Advisers 2.1 2.4 4.30 5.30 4.8
ROBERT H. SHROUDS
Du Pont 2.1 2.3 4.50 5.30 5.0
THEODORE H. TUNG
National City Corp. 2.1 2.1 4.00 4.90 4.8
MORRIS COHEN
Morris Cohen & Associates 2.0 2.3 4.00 5.00 4.8
JIM COONS
Huntington National Bank 2.0 2.3 3.84 5.82 5.0
JOSEPH W. DUNCAN
The Dun & Bradstreet Corp. 2.0 2.1 4.25 5.30 4.8
STEPHEN GALLAGHER
Societe Generale 2.0 2.0 4.25 5.25 4.5
VAN JOLISSAINT
DaimlerChrysler 2.0 2.5 4.50 5.60 5.3
KURT E. KARL
WEFA 2.0 2.1 4.20 5.00 4.8
KEN MAYLAND
Key Corp. 2.0 2.5 3.97 4.82 5.0
SUNG WON SOHN
Wells Fargo & Co. 2.0 2.3 4.25 4.80 5.0
DAVID M. BLITZER
Standard & Poor's 1.9 2.7 3.30 4.30 4.6
ROBERT H. CHANDROSS
Republic National Bank of New York 1.8 2.0 4.15 5.10 4.8
NICHOLAS S. PERNA
Fleet Financial Group 1.8 2.4 4.20 5.20 5.0
RICHARD D. RIPPE
Prudential Securities 1.8 2.3 4.20 5.50 4.9
DAVID A. WYSS
Standard & Poor's DRI 1.8 2.7 4.20 4.90 4.7
MICHAEL P. CAREY
Credit Lyonnais 1.7 2.2 4.45 5.30 5.0
JAMES COOPER & KATHLEEN MADIGAN
Business Week 1.7 1.9 3.60 4.50 5.2
STUART G. HOFFMAN
PNC Bank Corp. 1.7 2.0 3.70 4.63 4.9
CHARLES REEDER
Charles Reeder Associates 1.7 2.4 4.50 4.80 5.1
THOMAS SYNNOTT
U.S. Trust Co. of N.Y. 1.7 2.2 3.75 5.00 4.9
MARK ZANDI
Regional Financial Associates 1.7 2.3 4.25 5.35 5.0
MAUREEN F. ALLYN
Scudder Kemper Investments 1.5 1.6 4.50 4.80 5.0
WILLIAM C. DUDLEY
Goldman Sachs 1.5 1.9 3.60 4.70 5.2
L. DOUGLAS LEE
HSBC Securities 1.5 2.5 3.70 4.90 5.5
LYNN O. MICHAELIS
Weyerhaeuser Co. 1.5 2.7 4.50 5.90 4.5
DAVID RESLER
Nomura Securities Intl. 1.5 1.3 3.90 4.75 5.2
BRUCE STEINBERG
Merrill Lynch 1.5 1.5 3.70 4.70 5.2
ANTHONY CHAN
Banc One Investment Advisors 1.4 1.8 3.80 4.75 5.0
ROBERT A. BRUSCA
The Nikko Securities Co. 1.1 3.1 4.20 5.40 5.5
ROBERT McGEE
Tokai Bank Ltd. 1.1 1.3 3.00 4.25 5.0
PHILIP BRAVERMAN
DKB Securities (USA) 1.0 1.0 3.50 4.00 5.1
JOHN LIPSKY
Chase Manhattan Bank 1.0 1.3 3.50 4.50 5.0
EDWARD YARDENI
Deutsche Bank Securities 0.7 1.0 3.00 4.00 4.8
WILLIAM A. BROWN
J. P. Morgan -0.1 2.0 3.05 4.75 5.7
RONALD R. REUSS
Piper Jaffray -1.5 0.5 3.25 4.50 5.5
CONSENSUS 1.9% 2.1% 4.11% 5.08% 4.9%
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Updated Dec. 17, 1998 by bwwebmaster
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