TAIPEI'S MAYOR: THE MAN CHINA FEARS (int'l edition) Why Taipei Mayor Chen's reelection would rile Beijing At a campaign stop in a Taipei suburb, a beaming Chen Shui-bian plunges into the crowd, shaking hands and signing autographs as enthusiastic supporters jump up and down and jostle for position. Firecrackers erupt in the street for five deafening minutes, followed by chants of ''Ah Bian Victory!''--referring to Chen's Taiwanese nickname. To nervous leaders in Beijing, the scene looks ominously familiar. As Taiwan prepares for a pivotal election, a bandwagon starts to swell around a popular politician with nationalist leanings. Although the candidate denies it, Beijing is convinced his agenda is to declare Taiwan's outright independence from China. The last time this occurred--prior to the 1996 landslide victory of Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui--the two sides came perilously close to military conflict. Those tensions eased considerably as Lee proved to be the pragmatist he claimed to be. But this time, the political winds sweeping through Taiwan are potentially far more explosIve. As Taiwanese prepare to vote in midterm elections on Dec. 5, Lee's party--the Kuomintang--is in serious danger of losing its clear majority in the legislature for the first time since Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's defeated army fled to the island in 1949. The big winner is likely to be the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, led by the charismatic Chen. If he is reelected as Taipei's mayor, as expected, Chen would be the favorite to win the presidency, perhaps as early as 2000, when Lee's term ends. And the DPP cOuld move closer to seizing control of the legislature. That could dramatically rock the region by provoking a crisis with both Beijing and Washington. Chen's ascendancy threatens to end the diplomatic guise that has helped keep the peace between Beijing and Taipei for decades. His main goal is to overturn the long-standing policy that Taiwan is part of China. ''The DPP is against one-China policy,'' Chen says. He favors an eventual referendum on the independence issue. FAMILIAR DEVIL. That puts him in direct conflict with Chinese President Jiang Zemin. Jiang has pushed a softer line against Taiwan in hopes of luring the island into reunification talks. Just a month ago, Beijing and the KMT began high-level talks to improve diplomatic and commercial contacts. But Jiang still threatens serious consequences if Taipei splits off. If his policy is discredited, Communist Party hard-liners, particularly in the military, will gain the upper hand--and would likely trigger even more aggressive moves than the military maneuvers that roiled the Taiwan Straits two years ago. At risk is not only Taiwan's security but also its economic well-being. At stake is $25 billion in two-way trade and $35 billion in Taiwanese investment in the mainland. Contacts with China could cool quickly if the DPP gained power. Chinese officials involved in cross-strait relations say they won't even meet with DPP members if they come as party representatives. ''They still are attempting to make Taiwan independent,'' sniffs one Beijing official. The DPP's growing strength, in fact, is a major reason why Chinese leaders have been so eager recently to improve ties with the KMT. Although China still regards Chiang's old party as an enemy, the KMT is a devil Beijing knows well--and it at least agrees that the island is part of China. By improving relations, Beijing is trying to send a message to Taiwan's voters that their future is in safer hands with the KMT. Chen's pro-independence policy also could jeopardize relations with the U.S., Taiwan's key ally. Even though the U.S. continues to help Taiwan militarily, President Bill Clinton during his June trip to China clearly stated that Washington regards Taiwan as part of China. He also promised to oppose Taiwanese membership in such international organizations as the U.N. Clinton's statement has boosted Beijing's confidence that it holds all the cards in its dealings with Taipei. ''The Chinese feel they are calling the shots and expect Taiwan to kowtow and compromise,'' says a Western diplomat in Beijing. But Taiwan still commands solid support in both parties in the U.S. Congress. So if its citizens choose independence through democratic means, Washington would face a dilemma: either break its word with China, or sit back and allow an invasion. LAST GASP? Regardless of all the complications that might arise, the trend in Taiwanese politics is nevertheless pronounced. Ever since the KMT eased its grip on dissent and allowed freer elections, the party of Chiang Kai-shek has been on the decline. In 1983, when elections were more restricted, the KMT won 80% of the popular vote and 85% of legislative seats. In the 1995 legislative elections, the KMT won just 46% of the vote and 52% of the current 164 seats. The KMT could still hang on to its majority this year because many of the 61 new seats being added to the legislature are in districts where KMT candidates are strong. The KMT also can ally with such rivals as the stridently pro-China New Party, which has 13% of the seats. But a bad showing in Taipei and Kaohsiung, another major city where the KMT risks losing a mayoral race, could prove to be the party's last gasp. ''If the KMT loses this election,'' says National Taiwan University political scientist Lu Ya-li, ''their decline will be certain.'' That would make the DPP clearly the ascendant party. The DPP, which had only 21 seats nine years ago, won 54 in 1995 and now has 27% of the seats in the legislature. Its share is expected to reach 35% in this election. The DPP has benefited from a gradual but steady growth in pro-independence sentiment. One reason is that 85% of today's population come from native Taiwanese families, and these islanders are less prone to look at China as a homeland. According to a government study, 38% of the island's citizens identify themselves as Taiwanese--rather than Chinese or Taiwanese-Chinese--compared with 17% in 1992. Other factors have boosted the independence cause. The spread of democracy in the decade since the end of martial law, when it was illegal to advocate independence, and President Lee's drive to expand Taiwan's diplomatic standing have contributed. Gallup polls show that 32% of Taiwan residents back independence, compared with just 10% a decade ago. The number grows slightly each year. Polls suggest the Taipei race is too close to call. Yet analysts think Chen has the edge. Many DPP supporters remain suspicious of the KMT from the martial law days. So they often hide their intention to vote for opposition candidates by saying they are undecided. The DPP may also get a boost from minority New Party candidate Wang Chien-hsien. He's a strong unification backer likely to lure away KMT votes. BELLWETHER. If Chen is reelected as Taipei mayor--a post he won four years ago in a major upset--he will have a clear shot at the presidency. Lee cannot run again, and the KMT now lacks a popular candidate for President in 2000. Conventional wisdom holds that a native mainlander cannot win an island-wide election. So the party is likely to nominate current Vice-President Lien Chan, who is half native Taiwanese. But Lien is generally viewed as a colorless politico who lacks strong political convictions. Because Chen is seen as key to the DPP's future, the KMT is pulling out all the stops to defeat him. Chen's opponent in the mayoral race is the popular Ma Ying-jeou, a smart, dashing ex-Justice Minister with a straight-arrow image. ''It's very important for the KMT to win this election, not only to boost morale for the KMT in general but specifically for the presidential election,'' Ma says. But Chen is a formidable force. Chen, whose family has lived in Taiwan for centuries, gained a reputation as a hard-core advocate of democracy, as well as independence, while serving as an attorney for opposition leaders in the 1980s, during martial law. Taipei is an important bellwether, and not just because it's the national capital and accounts for 12.5% of the island's population. It also has the largest concentration of families that arrived in 1949 from the mainland. Some 30% of its citizens are from such families. So it should be a stronghold of the KMT and of those who favor good ties with China. Perhaps the biggest reason for the KMT's slide is that voters increasingly view it as corrupt, unresponsive, and inefficient. The party suffered a humiliating defeat last year when opposition parties swept KMT officials out of most county governments. And Taipei's horrendous traffic jams and pollution are testaments to the inability of past KMT administrations to finish desperately needed infrastructure projects, despite investing billions. Reforming the KMT is difficult because it relies heavily on grassroots factions affiliated with organized crime. A recent National Taiwan University study estimates that 40% of county council members in southern Taiwan, mostly KMT members, either belong to gangs or rely on them for funds. Last year, one KMT county chief was convicted of corruption. And while the KMT has won some credit for getting Taiwan through Asia's financial crisis relatively unscathed, it has come under criticism from opposition parties for allegedly arranging bailouts for bankrupt companies with KMT connections. With Ma as its new point man, the KMT hopes to fix its image. Ma comes from a mainland Chinese family and is a Harvard Law School graduate. As Justice Minister, he was known as ''Mr. Clean'' for his efforts to root out gangsterism in the party. After losing his job in a Cabinet reshuffle, Ma bitterly announced his political retirement. But he was drafted into the race when the KMT grew desperate. While the KMT has degenerated, the DPP has matured as a political force and moderated its call for immediate independence. Polls show that up to 80% of Taiwan's voters prefer the ''status quo''--that is, going along with the claim that the island is part of China but remaining free from Beijing's rule. The DPP rank and file are divided on the issue, but Chen says a formal declaration isn't needed because Taiwan already has de facto independence. Party leaders hope that by softening their tone, they can convince Beijing to keep the doors to trade and diplomacy open. Still, Chen wants to see Taiwan's future decided by its people, not through government negotiations with Beijing. He would like to see a plebiscite on independence, but not immediately. ''We have to be very practical and pick the right moment,'' he says. Adds National Chengchi University political scientist Joseph Wu: ''It wouldn't be worth it, because it would bring trouble not only from Beijing and the U.S. but also within Taiwan.'' Chen already knows about trouble. His rise from dirt-poor beginnings as the son of a plantation day laborer to the island's strongest opposition leader is near legend in Taiwan. He got wealthy as a maritime lawyer and went into politics after defending eight opposition leaders on trial for sedition for their role in a 1979 pro-independence rally in the southern city of Kaohsiung. The rally turned violent; all eight were convicted and sentenced to long prison terms. Chen also has tasted the bitter fruit of his opposition politics. In 1985, after his defeat in a county election, his wife was run over by a truck in what appeared to be an assassination attempt by KMT supporters. The truck missed Chen, who watched helplessly as it backed over his wife again, hitting her three times. She never walked again. No one was ever charged with the crime. But the story boosted Chen's popularity: He later won election to Taiwan's Parliament and finally as mayor. Chen has eased Taipei's traffic gridlock, cleared red tape, and improved garbage collection, earning approval ratings of around 70%. He says he has created jobs in Taipei and believes the Taipei business community, which was wary of him at first, feels reassured by his first-term record. Well, maybe not all businessmen: Chen's citywide crackdown on brothels, massage parlors, and gambling dens put some gangsters out of commission and shut down a nightlife scene that fueled a number of neighborhood economies. BAD DEAL? The recent visit of Taiwan emissaries to Beijing, while encouraging to some KMT supporters, has increased the fears of those who worry that Taiwan's leaders could cut a deal with Beijing that would end independence. Those jitters can help Chen. ''We don't want to be reunified,'' says Chien Chih-ming, 24, a student at National Taiwan University Medical College. ''Right now, we stand on a critical point after the talks with China have resumed. We should reveal our will by voting for Chen.'' Meanwhile, the cadres in Beijing watch the election with a sense of dread. President Jiang Zemin's big dream is to follow up on the triumph of Hong Kong's return by peacefully bringing Taiwan into the fold, too. He has kept hard-liners at bay by proposing an eight-point plan to achieve unification within a decade. But a DPP victory could force the diplomats to go back to the drawing board. One of Beijing's biggest headaches is likely to get a lot worse. By Jonathan Moore in Taipei, with Dexter Roberts in Beijing RELATED ITEMS ASIAN COVER IMAGE: The Mayor TABLE: The Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Campaign PHOTO: Chen Shui-bian Campaigning in Taipei Return to top of story

Updated Nov. 5, 1998 by bwwebmaster
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