BW/HARRIS POLL: STILL PUTTING THEIR MARBLES ON THE MARKET

Investors remain stuck on stocks. Few admit to panic selling in the wake of 
Asia's economic debacle, and most have no plans to cut their equity holdings in 
the coming year. True, more than half think a market crash is at least somewhat 
likely in the next 12 months, and a full 62% consider stocks overvalued.

Even so, and in spite of the Asian jitters, bullishness prevails. In fact, 
investors' expectations for their long-run returns from stocks are higher now 
than in mid-1996. Many think international stocks, beaten down this year, now 
are a good buy, and a surprising number favor the technology sector, another 
recent loser.

Note: This is a an extended version of the BW/Harris poll that appears in the 
December 29, 1997, issue of Business Week.


BEST BETS
If you had to choose the one investment that you think would be the best to 
make right now, which would it be?


                    1997           1996            1989

Real estate          33%            25%             40%
Mutual funds         21%            24%              8%
Common stock         11%            10%              5%
Bank or saving &
 loan deposits       10%             8%              8%
Government bonds      5%             9%             15%
Money-market funds    5%             6%             11%
Gold or other
  precious metals     4%             7%              8%
Corporate bonds       4%             2%              3%
I don't save or
 invest at all        2%             3%              NA
Not sure              5%             6%              2% 


ASSET ALLOCATION
What percentage of your household's total assets does each of the following 
account for? (Results total less than 100%)


Real estate                     40%
Savings instruments and cash    29%
Stocks                          10%
Bonds                            4%
Other                            9%


THE SHORT TERM
Over the next six months, do you think you will probably invest a lot more in 
stocks or stock mutual funds, invest somewhat more in stocks or stock mutual 
funds, reduce your investment in stocks or stock mutual funds somewhat, or 
reduce your investments a lot?


                        1997         1996

Invest a lot more        5%            5%
Invest somewhat more    22%           22%
Reduce somewhat         10%           12%
Reduce a lot            13%           18%
Stay the same           22%           21%
I don't save or invest  21%           20%
Not sure                 7%            2%


TAKING STOCK
Over the next year, do you think stocks will go up, stay about the same, or go 
down?


                       1997      1996      1989

Go up                   38%       39%       36%
Stay about the same     39%       36%       38%
Go down                 16%       19%       18%
Not sure                 7%        6%        8%


BUYING SHARES
Have you bought common stocks or shares in a stock mutual fund within the past 
year or not?


                       1997      1996      1989

Have bought             24%       21%       15%
Have not bought         75%       78%       84%
Not sure                 1%        1%        1%


GOING LONG
[For stock investors] In the long run, what sort of total returns (capital 
gains plus dividends) do you expect the stock market to produce for you?


                         1997      1996

Below 5% a year           4%        8%
5% to below 10% a year    27%      36%
10% to below 12% a year   29%      29%
12% to below 15% a year   21%      13%
15% or higher a year      14%       9%
Not sure                   5%       5%


MEASURING THE MARKET
[For stock investors] Overall, how would you describe the stock market's 
valuation? 


Very overvalued           10%
Somewhat overvalued       52%
Fairly valued             27%
Somewhat undervalued       6%
Very undervalued           2%
Not sure                   3%


CRISIS RESPONSE
[For stock investors] How did you respond when the crisis in Asia drove stocks 
down sharply last Oct. 27? 


Bought stock               6%
Sold all stock             0%
Sold some stock            2%
Switched money into bonds  1%
Didn't change holdings    90%
Not sure                   1%


CRASH TEST
Over the next 12 months, how would you rate the chance of another big crash in 
the stock market?


                       1997      1996      1989
Very likely             14%       12%       12%
Somewhat likely         43%       35%       28%
Not very likely         30%       35%       40%
Not likely at all        9%       15%       17%
Not sure                 4%        3%        3%


HUNTING FOR BEARS
[For stock investors] Over the next 12 months, what is the likelihood that the 
stock market will enter into a prolonged downturn lasting a year or longer?


Very likely             3%
Somewhat likely        21%
Not very likely        60%
Not likely at all      15%
Not sure                1%


GLOBAL OUTLOOK
[For stock investors] Which of these statements best describes your attitude 
toward international stocks? 


International stocks are overvalued,
  even after their recent decline             30%

International stocks are fairly valued
  and a good deal now                         33%

International stocks are selling at
  bargain prices and look very attractive     19%

Not sure                                      18%


TECHNOLOGY TRAIL
[For stock investors] Over the next 12 months, how do you expect technology 
stocks will perform, compared to the broader stock market? 


Significantly outperform        11%
Somewhat outperform             40%
Perform about the same          30%
Somewhat underperform           12%
Significantly underperform       2%
Not sure                         5%
EDITED BY KEITH H. HAMMONDS
Survey of 912 adults conducted Dec. 11-15, 1997 for Business Week by Louis Harris & Associates Inc.



RELATED ITEMS

ONLINE ORIGINAL: COMMENTARY: ARE THESE BULLS FARSIGHTED--OR WEARING BLINDERS?

Return to top of story


SIGNUPABOUTBW_CONTENTSBW_+!DAILY_BRIEFINGSEARCHCONTACT_US


Updated Dec. 18, 1997 by bwwebmaster
Copyright 1997, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use