BULL AND SUPERBULL: STILL OPTIMISTIC, BUT...

Robert S. Robbins, market strategist for Robinson-Humphrey Co., is not just a bull. He is, as he puts it, a superbull. But even with his 1997 forecast of 7400 for the Dow and 860 for the S&P 500-stock index, he came in far too low. Still, Robbins came the closest to pegging the S&P's rise and was second only to Prudential Securities Inc.'s Greg A. Smith in forecasting the Dow.

Robbins' analysis focuses on the relationship of the Dow and the consumer price index. He defines a superbull market as a stock market that is rising well above the long-term average gain of around 7%. It happens, in his view, when disinflation follows an inflation spiral.

Robbins believes that the current superbull market could continue into 1998. He forecasts about a 16% gain for the S&P in 1998. His biggest worry: ''Our Mideast oil dependency is the Achilles' heel,'' he says. ''I see that as being the biggest way to end a superbull market and have a very deep bear market.''

Once Prudential Securities' Greg A. Smith saw BUSINESS WEEK's 1997 Market Forecast survey, with his 7500 Dow forecast leading the pack, he immediately became more bullish. ''I saw me at the top of the list as a reason to be bullish because expectations were so low and things were so good,'' he says.

What's different now, Smith says, is that people are more optimistic. ''The fact that we got through August and October and yet the S&P 500 has done extremely well has made people feel like we're impervious to anything, because of the strong money flows,'' says Smith. But he feels fundamentals are less good than they have been for a while, with costs that will be harder to contain and pricing that will become even tougher.

Smith expects profit concerns to keep the Dow from rising above 8500. But he also thinks that big multinationals may be able to strengthen their long-term outlook by going into foreign markets and buying at depressed levels.

By Suzanne Woolley in New York