
STOCKREPORTS |
Komag, Incorporated |
Nasdaq Symbol KMAG In S&P SmallCap 600 |
| 19-JUL-97 |
Industry: Computers (Peripherals) |
Summary: This company is the largest independent maker of sputtered thin-film media used in Winchester disk drives. |
 |
Recent Price 18.63 52 Wk Range 34.75 - 16.44 |
Yield Nil 12-Mo. P/E 18.3 |
Quantitative Evaluation:
Outlook
(1 Lowest - 5 Highest)
5-
Fair Value
27.90
Risk
HIGH
Earn/Div Rank
B
|
 |
|
Technical Evaluation:
BEARISH
since 12/96
Rel. Strength Rank
(1 Lowest - 99 Highest)
3
Insider Activity
NA
|
Overview 26-JUN-97
Sales in the second quarter of 1997 should rise slightly from those of the first quarter, but less than previously anticipated, due to lower market demand for enterprise-class disk drives. Revenues should decline in the second half of the year, as the company's largest customer Seagate recently cut its orders sharply. Seagate accounted for 31% of the company's sales in the first quarter of 1997, but should only account for 15% in the second quarter. Due to underutilized capacity, margins should erode for the remainder of the year. KMAG also expects a loss in the second quarter from its Japanese joint venture, reflecting MR-based product transition problems. Earnings in the second half of the year should be lower than those in the first half.
Valuation 26-JUN-97
The shares of this leading vendor of magnetic media dropped sharply in late June, when the company announced that earnings will be significantly lower than expected for the balance of 1997. Seagate cut its orders sharply for the second half of the year, which will also adversely affect KMAG's margins. Komag has invested heavily over the years in increasing its production capacity and continuing to enhance the capabilities of its media offerings. The company is likely to reduce its spending plans for the remainder of 1997. While we remain optimistic on the long term growth in the disk drive market, earnings over the next few quarters will be hampered by short term demand problems. Still, the company remains the leading producer of high performance media. We are lowering our 1997 EPS estimate to $0.95, from $2.00, and our recommendation to hold, from accumulate.
Key Stock Statistics
| S&P EPS Est. 1997 | 0.90 |
| P/E on S&P Est. 1997 | 20.7 |
| S&P EPS Est. 1998 | 1.50 |
| Dividend Rate/Share | Nil |
| Shs. outstg. (M) | 51.9 |
| Avg. daily vol. (M) | 2.035 |
|
| Tang. Bk. Value/Share |
13.80 |
| Beta |
1.16 |
| Shareholders |
500 |
| Market cap. (B) |
$0.967 |
| Inst. holdings |
72% |
|
Value of $10,000 invested 5 years ago:$ 24,833
Fiscal Year Ending Dec. 31
| Revenue (Million $) |
|
1997 |
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
1993 |
1992 |
| Q1 |
167.2 |
152.8 |
105.1 |
97.70 |
93.56 |
71.10 |
| Q2 |
175.1 |
152.2 |
120.8 |
97.77 |
103.2 |
76.50 |
| Q3 |
NA |
131.5 |
132.8 |
98.17 |
97.45 |
82.90 |
| Q4 |
NA |
141.2 |
153.5 |
98.74 |
91.19 |
96.27 |
| Year |
NA |
577.8 |
512.3 |
392.4 |
385.4 |
326.8 |
|
| Earning Per Share ($) |
|
1997 |
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
1993 |
1992 |
| Q1 |
0.33 |
0.80 |
0.31 |
0.34 |
0.17 |
0.07 |
| Q2 |
0.22 |
0.80 |
0.48 |
0.31 |
0.19 |
0.08 |
| Q3 |
E0.15 |
0.31 |
0.61 |
0.32 |
0.09 |
0.15 |
| Q4 |
E0.20 |
0.16 |
0.72 |
0.30 |
-0.68 |
0.10 |
| Year |
E0.90 |
2.07 |
2.14 |
1.27 |
-0.23 |
0.39 |
|
Dividend Data: No cash dividends have been paid.
Business Summary 26-JUN-97
Komag develops, manufactures and markets sputtered thin-film media for use in high-capacity, high-performance 5.25-inch, 3.5-inch and smaller disk drive storage devices. The company believes it is the largest supplier of sputtered thin-film media used in disk drives and makes the highest-density disks commercially available. Komag exited the thin-film recording head business in the third quarter of 1994. Media products are the disks or platters within a disk drive onto which information is recorded and stored, and from which it is retrieved. High density media are essential to the performance of high-capacity hard disk drives, which are in strong demand owing to the ever-greater processing power of computers, more sophisticated operating systems and application software, higher resolution graphics and larger databases. The company's media products are primarily used in disk arrays, network file servers, high-end personal computers and engineering workstations.
Komag's production volume of media products depends on available capacity, utilization of capacity and production yield performance. In February 1997, the company had 10 thin-film media sputtering lines operating in California, and eight in Malaysia.
The company's 50%-owned Asahi Komag Co. joint venture is one of the three largest manufacturers of thin-film media in Japan and has five production lines in operation.
The company sells its products to independent OEM disk drive manufacturers for incorporation into rigid disk drives marketed under the manufacturers' own labels. It also sells media to computer system manufacturers that produce their own disk drives.
Important Developments
Jun. '97
The company announced that its earnings for the remainder of 1997 will be significantly lower than previously expected. Seagate, the company's largest customer, cut its order sharply for the second half of the year. KMAG is also suffering from weak demand for enterprise-class disk drives. Margins will be hurt by the underutilization of capacity, and earnings will thus be lower in the second half of the year than in the first.
Apr. '97
Sales and earnings improved in the first quarter of 1997, compared with the quarter ended December 31, 1996. Unit sales increased 16%, sequentially, to 13.6 million disks, aided by the addition of two production lines and increased manufacturing yields.
Capitalization
Long Term Debt:
$145,000,000 (3/97).
Minority Interest:
$3,341,000.
| Per Share Data ($) |
|
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
1993 |
1992 |
1991 |
1990 |
1989 |
1988 |
1987 |
| Tangible Bk. Val. |
13.50 |
11.33 |
7.23 |
5.86 |
5.90 |
4.93 |
3.92 |
2.92 |
2.58 |
2.24 |
| Cash Flow |
3.71 |
3.45 |
2.30 |
0.91 |
1.24 |
1.08 |
1.04 |
0.26 |
0.65 |
0.48 |
| Earnings |
2.07 |
2.14 |
1.27 |
-0.23 |
0.39 |
0.37 |
0.44 |
-0.23 |
0.29 |
0.25 |
| Dividends |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
| Payout Ratio |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
| Prices - High |
37 |
37 1/2 |
14 1/2 |
12 |
11 5/8 |
12 1/4 |
8 1/8 |
5 3/4 |
7 1/8 |
7 3/8 |
| - Low |
17 5/8 |
11 1/8 |
7 7/8 |
6 7/8 |
5 3/8 |
5 3/8 |
4 1/4 |
3 1/4 |
4 1/8 |
3 |
| P/E Ratio - High |
18 |
17 |
11 |
NM |
29 |
33 |
18 |
NM |
25 |
30 |
| - Low |
9 |
5 |
6 |
NM |
14 |
15 |
10 |
NM |
14 |
12 |
|
| Income Statement Analysis (Million $) |
|
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
1993 |
1992 |
1991 |
1990 |
1989 |
1988 |
1987 |
| Revs. |
578 |
512 |
392 |
385 |
327 |
279 |
150 |
85.0 |
84.0 |
47.0 |
| Oper. Inc. |
199 |
195 |
125 |
82.7 |
56.6 |
59.0 |
36.9 |
4.0 |
21.2 |
14.7 |
| Depr. |
86.9 |
65.5 |
47.6 |
49.0 |
36.3 |
29.4 |
18.2 |
13.0 |
9.0 |
5.1 |
| Int. Exp. |
0.6 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
5.5 |
3.8 |
5.6 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
| Pretax Inc. |
131 |
143 |
82.8 |
-2.5 |
25.8 |
30.7 |
19.2 |
-8.0 |
11.8 |
9.2 |
| Eff. Tax Rate |
16% |
24% |
28% |
NM |
71% |
48% |
35% |
NM |
37% |
39% |
| Net Inc. |
110 |
107 |
58.5 |
-9.9 |
16.9 |
15.1 |
13.4 |
-6.1 |
7.5 |
5.6 |
|
| Balance Sheet & Other Fin. Data (Million $) |
|
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
1993 |
1992 |
1991 |
1990 |
1989 |
1988 |
1987 |
| Cash |
93.2 |
214 |
93.9 |
91.6 |
89.3 |
91.0 |
45.2 |
37.8 |
22.2 |
34.6 |
| Curr. Assets |
251 |
323 |
172 |
178 |
153 |
149 |
82.0 |
64.0 |
54.0 |
49.0 |
| Total Assets |
938 |
686 |
424 |
382 |
356 |
277 |
163 |
122 |
100 |
74.0 |
| Curr. Liab. |
109 |
70.9 |
53.3 |
85.9 |
55.5 |
51.7 |
24.0 |
19.3 |
13.8 |
10.4 |
| LT Debt |
70.0 |
Nil |
16.3 |
29.5 |
27.6 |
16.5 |
19.9 |
21.8 |
20.7 |
9.8 |
| Common Eqty. |
698 |
575 |
331 |
255 |
249 |
202 |
115 |
77.0 |
62.0 |
53.0 |
| Total Cap. |
829 |
615 |
370 |
296 |
300 |
225 |
138 |
102 |
86.0 |
63.0 |
| Cap. Exp. |
403 |
166 |
102 |
86.0 |
109 |
60.2 |
40.3 |
24.7 |
31.2 |
16.9 |
| Cash Flow |
197 |
172 |
106 |
39.1 |
53.2 |
44.5 |
31.6 |
7.0 |
16.5 |
10.7 |
|
|
| Curr. Ratio |
2.3 |
4.6 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
| % LT Debt of Cap. |
8.4 |
Nil |
4.4 |
10.0 |
9.2 |
7.3 |
14.4 |
21.4 |
24.1 |
15.6 |
| % Net Inc.of Revs. |
19.0 |
20.9 |
14.9 |
NM |
5.2 |
5.4 |
8.9 |
NM |
9.0 |
11.8 |
| % Ret. on Assets |
13.5 |
19.3 |
14.2 |
NM |
5.3 |
6.0 |
9.0 |
NM |
8.5 |
5.6 |
| % Ret. on Equity |
17.3 |
23.6 |
19.5 |
NM |
7.4 |
8.3 |
13.3 |
NM |
12.9 |
NM |
Data as orig. reptd.; bef. results of disc. opers. and/or spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs. as of ex-div. date. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked.
Office--1704 Automation Parkway, San Jose, CA 95131-1873.
Tel--(408) 576-2000.
Website--http://www.komag.com
Pres & CEO--S. C. Johnson.
Chrmn--T. Chen.
SVP-CFO & Secy--W. L. Potts, Jr.
Investor Contact--David H. Allen.
Dirs--C. R. Barrett, T. Chen, C. A. Eyre, I. Federman, S. C. Johnson, G. A. Neil, M. Palevsky, A. Sun, M. Takebayashi.
Transfer Agent & Registrar--ChaseMellon Shareholder Services, SF.
Incorporated--in Delaware in 1986.
Empl-- 4,101.
S&P Analyst: Brian Goodstadt

This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither S&P nor any other party guarantee its accuracy or make warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 1997