STOCKREPORTS
Cisco Systems, Inc. Nasdaq Symbol CSCO
In S&P 500
19-JUL-97 Industry:
Computers (Networking)
Summary: Cisco offers a complete line of routers and switching products that connect and manage communications among local and wide area computer networks employing a variety of protocols.

Recent Price 76.41
52 Wk Range 76.41 - 46.38
Yield Nil
12-Mo. P/E 44.4

Quantitative Evaluation:
Outlook (1 Lowest - 5 Highest)
5-
Fair Value
108.00
Risk
MEDIUM
Earn/Div Rank
B
Technical Evaluation:
BULLISH since 05/97
Rel. Strength Rank (1 Lowest - 99 Highest)
84
Insider Activity
Neutral

Overview 30-JUN-97

Sales should grow nearly 60% in FY 97 (Jul.). CSCO is benefiting from its position of offering the industry's most comprehensive line of switching products, and of being chosen increasingly by customers looking for a single vendor able to provide complete end-to-end networking solutions. Demand for switches is being led by the need for increased bandwidth among corporate users. In addition, Cisco's acquisition strategy has given it a strong, broad-based product line, including its July 1996 acquisition of StrataCom (STRM), providing exposure to Frame Relay and ATM technologies used in WANs. Gross margin pressures are expected to continue, as the product mix shifts to less profitable low-end routers, switching and access products. STRM's products also carry lower margins than CSCO's. Operating expenses will continue to increase sharply, as CSCO builds its sales and marketing infrastructure and invests heavily in R&D. EPS of $2.07 are estimated for FY 97, excluding non-recurring items, and we project $2.80 for FY 98.

Valuation 30-JUN-97

We continue to recommend buying Cisco shares in light of increasing evidence that Cisco's strong market position remains intact. Red flags of caution were raised earlier this year when management announced plans to slow its rate of hiring during the third quarter, indicating that sales growth was also expected to slow. Further concerns have been raised over greater competition coming from recent merger proposals to combine 3COM and U.S. Robotics, and Ascend Communications and Cascade. Nevertheless, CSCO remains the dominant vendor in the still growing data networking industry, and with its shares trading at a price/earnings multiple that represents a significant discount from its long term earnings growth rate, we recommend purchase.

Key Stock Statistics

S&P EPS Est. 1997 1.85
P/E on S&P Est. 1997 41.3
S&P EPS Est. 1998 2.80
Dividend Rate/Share Nil
Shs. outstg. (M) 669.1
Avg. daily vol. (M) 7.874
Tang. Bk. Value/Share 4.34
Beta 1.65
Shareholders 8,300
Market cap. (B) $ 51.1
Inst. holdings 59%
Value of $10,000 invested 5 years ago:$ 182,339

Fiscal Year Ending Jul. 31

Revenue (Million $)
1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992
Q1 1,435 710.2 392.9 248.5 126.4 63.60
Q2 1,592 826.5 454.9 302.2 145.1 74.00
Q3 1,648 985.2 509.9 331.2 172.4 91.40
Q4 NA 1,292 621.2 361.2 205.2 110.6
Year NA 4,096 1,979 1,243 649.0 339.6

Earning Per Share ($)
1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992
Q1 0.26 0.29 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.03
Q2 0.49 0.33 0.09 0.15 0.08 0.04
Q3 0.55 0.39 0.22 0.16 0.09 0.05
Q4 E0.57 0.41 0.25 0.17 0.10 0.06
Year E1.85 1.37 0.76 0.60 0.33 0.17

Dividend Data: No cash dividends have been paid. Five two-for-one stock splits were effected between 1991 and 1996.

Business Summary 30-JUN-97

Cisco Systems is the world's largest supplier of high-performance computer internetworking systems. Its routers and other communication products connect and manage local and wide area networks (LANs and WANs) that employ a variety of protocols, media interfaces, network topologies and cabling systems, enabling customers to connect different computer networks using different hardware and software across offices, countries and continents.

Key to Cisco's growth is its position as the provider offering the industry's broadest line of networking products. This is critical, as customers prefer complete end-to-end networking solutions. Demand for switches is being led by the need for greater bandwidth by corporate users--Cisco dominates in this market. However, the planned acquisition by Ascend Communications of Cascade Communications would sell most of the major networking products for regional telephone companies and Internet-service providers--another attractive market.

Cisco's product family includes backbone and remote access routers, LAN and asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) switches, dial-up access servers and network management software. High-performance, intelligent routers interconnect networks using different protocols and media. Access routers extend the network to regional sales groups, small satellite offices and individual telecommuters. All products support multiprotocol multiple media connectivity in multivendor environments. CSCO's Internetwork Operating System (IOS) provides a common software platform across networks.

To answer criticisms that routers create bottlenecks in the Internet backbone, the network core, Cisco is introducing its Gigabit Switch Router (GSR). Targeted at the Internet-service provider market, the GSR will compete against Ascend's high-speed router, GRF. CSCO claims its GSR supports several hundred thousand routes, while the GRF supports about 150,000. With field trials scheduled for the summer of 1997, the GSR should be available in the fall. Another key new product offering is CSCO's 3800 multiservice access concentrator, which integrates switched voice, multiprotocol data and routing over Frame Relay and ATM.

Cisco has employed an active acquisition strategy, making many small acquisitions in recent years as well as acquiring some key technologies. The largest was the July 1996 acquisition of StrataCom Inc., a leading maker of high speed ATM and Frame Relay switching technologies, in a $4 billion stock deal. In 1995, CSCO purchases included Grand Junction Networks; Combinet; and Lightstream Corp. (ATM switching technology).

Capitalization

Long Term Debt: None (4/97).
Minority Interest: $41,230,000.
Options: To purchase 69,089,000 shs. at $0.01 to $55.88 ea. (7/96).

Per Share Data ($)
1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987
Tangible Bk. Val. 4.34 2.53 1.64 0.96 0.51 0.28 0.16 0.03 0.01 0.00
Cash Flow 1.61 0.87 0.65 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Earnings 1.37 0.76 0.60 0.33 0.17 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Dividends Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Payout Ratio Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Prices - High 69 1/8 44 5/8 20 3/8 14 7/8 10 1/8 4 1/4 1 7/16 NA NA NA
- Low 32 16 1/4 9 3/8 8 1/4 4 1 1/4 9/16 NA NA NA
P/E Ratio - High 50 60 34 45 58 40 45 NA NA NA
- Low 23 21 16 25 24 14 18 NA NA NA

Income Statement Analysis (Million $)
1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987
Revs. 4,096 1,979 1,243 649 340 183 70.0 28.0 6.0 2.0
Oper. Inc. 1,533 701 519 277 136 69.0 22.0 7.0 1.0 Nil
Depr. 133 58.5 30.8 13.3 6.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0
Int. Exp. NM NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 NA NA NA
Pretax Inc. 1,465 679 509 275 136 71.0 23.0 7.0 1.0 Nil
Eff. Tax Rate 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 39% 41% 40% 40% 34%
Net Inc. 913 421 315 172 84.4 43.2 13.9 4.2 0.4 0.1

Balance Sheet & Other Fin. Data (Million $)
1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987
Cash 1,038 440 183 89.0 156 91.0 57.0 4.0 2.0 NA
Curr. Assets 2,160 996 508 268 247 141 78.0 16.0 5.0 NA
Total Assets 3,630 1,757 1,054 595 324 154 83.0 17.0 5.0 1.0
Curr. Liab. 769 338 206 120 78.3 26.3 13.2 8.8 1.7 NA
LT Debt NM Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 0.1 0.2 Nil Nil
Common Eqty. 2,820 1,379 848 475 246 128 69.0 8.0 3.0 Nil
Total Cap. 2,852 1,420 848 475 246 128 69.0 8.0 3.0 Nil
Cap. Exp. 283 112 59.6 33.9 21.6 11.3 4.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
Cash Flow 1,046 480 346 185 90.8 46.2 14.7 4.3 0.5 0.1

Curr. Ratio 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 3.2 5.4 5.9 1.8 2.6 NA
% LT Debt of Cap. NM Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 0.2 2.7 Nil Nil
% Net Inc.of Revs. 22.3 21.3 25.3 26.5 24.8 23.6 19.9 15.1 7.1 5.6
% Ret. on Assets 32.5 30.0 38.2 37.0 34.7 36.5 23.2 39.2 14.0 19.1
% Ret. on Equity 41.7 37.8 47.6 47.2 44.4 43.9 34.8 78.9 23.8 86.5

Data as orig. reptd.; bef. results of disc. opers. and/or spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs. as of ex-div. date. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked.

Office--170 W. Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA 95134-1706. Tel--(408) 526-4000. Website--http://www.cisco.com Chrmn--J. P. Morgridge. Vice Chrmn--D. T. Valentine. Pres & CEO--J. Chambers. CFO, VP-Fin, Secy & Investor Contact--L. R. Carter. Dirs-- J. T. Chambers, M. S. Frankel, J. F. Gibbons, E. R. Kozer, R. M. Moley, J. P. Morgridge, R. L. Puette, M. Son, D. T. Valentine, S. West. Transfer Agent & Registrar--First National Bank of Boston. Incorporated--in California in 1984. Empl-- 10,451. S&P Analyst: Megan Graham Hackett


This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither S&P nor any other party guarantee its accuracy or make warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 1997