THE TOP 20 HEADS TO HUNT No one likes to see talent walk out the door. But Jack Welch may have little choice. Once he anoints his successor as chairman and CEO of General Electric Co., he's likely to face an exodus as the runners-up ditch GE for top slots elsewhere. That's the word from the country's leading executive-search consultants. BUSINESS WEEK asked the top 25 general management recruiters, as ranked by headhunter John R. Sibbald in his book The New Career Makers, for a list of execs likely to become CEOs at a major corporation within five years. We asked them to leave off such well-known No.2's as Coca-Cola's M. Douglas Ivester and American Airlines' Donald J. Carty, who are acknowledged heirs apparent. In all, 20 recruiters named 133 candidates, from which we compiled a top-20 all-star list. ''ONLY ONE.'' The company with the most names? Good old GE, with five of the top 20 and nine altogether. Recruiters say the GE picks--David L. Calhoun, W. James McNerney Jr., Ronald L. Nardelli, Gary L. Rogers, and Robert C. Wright--will be hot commodities no matter what. ''Only one guy can get Welch's job,'' says John F. Johnson, chairman of headhunter Lamalie Amrop International, ''and that will unleash a tidal wave of CEO candidates.'' There's a tinge of irony here. In a culture where few companies successfully cultivate internal leadership, those that do often lose top talent to companies in need of a savior. Says E. Pendleton James of Pendleton James & Associates Inc.: ''GE is a farm team for us headhunters.'' The top vote-getter is McNerney, 47, CEO of GE Lighting. A former McKinsey & Co. consultant, McNerney has run business units, such as GE Information Services, as well as the Asia Pacific operations in his 15 years at GE. ''He has it all: He has the boardroom presence. He's handsome. He definitely has the smarts,'' says Daniel M. Shepherd of Chicago's Shepherd Bueschel & Provus. Close behind is Kenneth I. Chenault, president and chief operating officer of American Express Co. Also an ex-consultant, Chenault has run the card group and led a restructuring that cut $2 billion in costs. Headhunters prefer Chenault's and McNerney's all-around leadership to narrow experience. Jay Gaines, president of search firm Jay Gaines & Co., says CEOs-to-be should excel in three areas: They must be capable of managing technology. They should be able to build the relationships prized in sales and marketing. And they need a solid operating record. ''If you don't run a unit,'' says Gaines, ''it's extremely rare to get to the top.'' Indeed, most of our picks have run or are running a business of their own. At PepsiCo, Craig E. Weatherup is CEO of its Pepsi-Cola division, while Steven S Reinemund runs Frito-Lay. Lois D. Juliber now heads all of North America and Europe for Colgate-Palmolive. And Samuel J. Palmisano built IBM's computer services group into a $16 billion behemoth. At a time when boards bemoan the lack of top talent, few are complaining about this group. If their bosses don't keep them happy, they may soon be heading for the door. By Jennifer Reingold and John A. Byrne in New York Return to main story

Updated July 31, 1997 by bwwebmaster
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